Home  choices  barometer  timing  tests  signals  realty  easy  buy  sell  lists

2017 February Update


The selection list was generated before the February 24 market opening. Price histories, adjusted for splits and dividends, were downloaded from Yahoo.


I have been unable to become fully invested for several months. Consequently, I have raised the tranche size from $70,000 to $100,000.

Comprehensive Strategy hedges

The January Barometer was positive. There will be no hedging this year.

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
  MAR   APR    MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB
        -28     -4    26   -54   -42     3   -14                        

Comprehensive Strategy investments

Selection list

                                    MERIT    PRICE   GROUP AND END MARKET  
MCD    McDonald's Corp               704    128.27  Restaurants     US/intl
RAI    Reynolds American             517     61.55  Tobacco Prods        US
CCI    Crown Castle                  486     91.26  Util, Telecom    US/Aus
MO     Altria Group                  484     74.46  Tobacco Prods   US/intl
SPG    Simon Property                458 X  184.99  Real Estate        intl
HD     Home Depot                    434    144.71  Home Furnish        NAm
UNH    UnitedHealth Group            398    162.60  HC Plans             US
DPZ    Domino's Pizza                389    186.30  Restaurants     US/intl
PM     Philip Morris                 384    106.52  Tobacco Prods      intl
LMT    Lockheed Martin               361    264.85  Aerosp & Def    US/intl
TJX    TJX Companies                 356     77.81  Retail,Variety  US/intl
EL     Estee Lauder                  349     84.02  Personal Prods     intl
AZO    AutoZone Inc                  329    727.22  Auto Parts       US/Mex
SJM    JM Smucker                    323    140.83  Packaged Goods     intl
STZ    Constellation Brands          322    153.60  Beverage, Hard     intl
CMCSA  Comcast Corp                  322     37.65  Entertainment      intl
TRV    Travelers Cos                 317    122.36  Insurance       US/intl
ROST   Ross Stores                   316     67.64  Retail,Variety       US
NOC    Northrop Grumman              315    243.86  Aerosp & Def       intl
HSY    Hershey Co, The               311    108.65  Confectioners  NAm/intl

Portfolio

CMCSA split 2:1, so 20 CMCSA18C55 became 40 CMCSA18C27.5.

I bought EL options. MCD, RAI, CCI, HD, UNH, and LMT were already investments; MO, DPZ, PM, and TJX were in the same group and end market as existing investments; and SPG was in the Real Estate group:

                   GROUP AND END MARKET           START        END OF MONTH
500 CCI           Util, Telecom    US/Aus   12/15/14  37,778  02/28  46,765
14 ADP19C97.5     Software           intl   11/25/16  11,513  02/28  17,360
60 ARCC18C15      Investments          US   03/28/16   4,315  02/28  15,600
60 ARCC18C17      Investments          US   05/25/16   1,495  02/28   5,400
2 AZO18C800       Auto Parts       US/Mex   07/25/16  15,468  02/28   6,640
14 CCI18C95       Util, Telecom    US/Aus   08/25/16   9,259  02/28   7,140
40 CMCSA18C27.5   Entertainment      intl   01/25/16  14,564  02/28  41,600
20 EL19C85        Personal Prods     intl   02/24/17  18,924  02/28  18,900
10 HD18C125       Home Furnish        NAm   10/25/16  10,406  02/28  23,050
10 HD18C130       Home Furnish        NAm   02/25/16  13,246  02/28  19,300
4 LMT18C220       Aerosp & Def    US/intl   12/15/15   8,567  02/28  20,800
10 MCD18C125      Restaurants     US/intl   06/24/16   7,576  02/28   8,650
30 RAI18C50       Tobacco Prods        US   09/23/16   9,032  02/28  35,040
20 ROST19C67.5    Retail,Variety       US   01/25/17  17,944  02/28  20,000
10 TRV18C115      Insurance       US/intl   11/25/15  10,812  02/28  11,590
6 UNH18C135       HC Plans             US   04/25/16   8,845  02/28  20,550
10 UNH19C165      HC Plans             US   12/16/16  19,546  02/28  19,800

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
  MAR   APR    MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB
   24   -14     -5    21    17   -35   -19     7     3    30     2    37

Real Estate Fund Strategy

Portfolio

                      DESCRIPTION                 START        END OF MONTH
33 IYR18C72    iShares US Real Estate ETF   02/25/16  17,359  02/28  32,340
14 IYR18C75    iShares US Real Estate ETF   12/15/15   8,237  02/28  10,500
28 IYR18C76    iShares US Real Estate ETF   11/25/15  15,438  02/28  19,180
20 IYR18C78    iShares US Real Estate ETF   10/25/16   9,764  02/28  11,400
14 IYR18C80    iShares US Real Estate ETF   06/24/16   7,565  02/28   6,384
40 IYR18C83    iShares US Real Estate ETF   08/25/16  19,448  02/28  12,680
14 IYR18C85    iShares US Real Estate ETF   07/25/16   7,719  02/28   3,206
20 IYR19C76    iShares US Real Estate ETF   11/25/16  11,824  02/28  16,000
20 IYR19C77    iShares US Real Estate ETF   12/16/16  12,024  02/28  14,800
30 IYR19C81    iShares US Real Estate ETF   02/24/17  15,992  02/28  16,200

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
  MAR   APR    MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB
   35   -10      9    36    35   -28   -19   -67   -13    34   -18    38

Easy Strategy

Buying in the Easy Strategy has been suspended indefinitely.

Portfolio

                       DESCRIPTION                START        END OF MONTH
85 SPY18C217        SPDR S&P 500 ETF        10/10/16 118,598  02/28 216,155

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
  MAR   APR    MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB
   35    12                                  -17    33    20    10    52

Treasury bond Strategy

Portfolio

I bought 20 more IEF19C106 on 02/06/17 for $5,984. They are included in the 12/05/16 purchase.

                       DESCRIPTION                START        END OF MONTH
14 IEF18C111   7-10 Year Treasury bond ETF  10/25/16   2,730  02/28   1,260
48 IEF19C106   7-10 Year Treasury bond ETF  12/05/16  14,538  02/28  14,880

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
  MAR   APR    MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB
                                               0    -1    -1     0     1