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2016 December Update


The selection list was generated before the December 15 market opening. Price histories, adjusted for splits and dividends, were downloaded from Yahoo.


Comprehensive Strategy hedges

There will be no hedging until the next January Barometer defensive period begins.

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
  JAN   FEB   MAR   APR    MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC
                    -28     -4    26   -54   -42     3   -14            

Comprehensive Strategy investments

Selection list

                                    MERIT    PRICE   GROUP AND END MARKET  
MCD    McDonald's Corp               585    122.84  Restaurants     US/intl
RAI    Reynolds American             408     55.31  Tobacco Prods        US
MO     Altria Group                  390     65.94  Tobacco Prods   US/intl
SPG    Simon Property                384 X  181.28  Real Estate        intl
CCI    Crown Castle                  384 X   86.21  Util, Telecom    US/Aus
HD     Home Depot                    368    135.98  Home Furnish        NAm
UNH    UnitedHealth Group            332    159.86  HC Plans             US
DPZ    Domino's Pizza                329    161.99  Restaurants     US/intl
AZO    AutoZone Inc                  324    788.96  Auto Parts       US/Mex
STZ    Constellation Brands          312    155.59  Beverage, Hard     intl
PM     Philip Morris                 309     90.72  Tobacco Prods      intl
TJX    TJX Companies                 308     77.30  Retail,Variety  US/intl
LMT    Lockheed Martin               304    252.30  Aerosp & Def    US/intl
EL     Estee Lauder                  298 X   77.96  Personal Prods     intl
CMCSA  Comcast Corp                  290     70.02  Entertainment      intl
SJM    JM Smucker                    287 X  128.08  Packaged Goods     intl
ROST   Ross Stores                   286     67.44  Retail,Variety       US
COST   Costco Wholesale              276    158.99  Retail,Variety  US/intl
NOC    Northrop Grumman              273    232.10  Aerosp & Def       intl
KMB    Kimberly-Clark Corp           270 X  114.61  Personal Prods     intl

Portfolio

I sold GPAGF because it developed a downtrend.

I bought more UNH because all stocks were disqualified on the first pass and the market exposures of MCD, RAI, CCI, and HD were above the $70,000 tranche size. MCD, RAI, CCI, HD, UNH, AZO, STZ, TJX, LMT, EL, and CMCSA, were already investments; MO, DPZ, PM, ROST, COST, NOC, and KMB were in the same group and end market as existing investments; SJM was more than halfway towards a trend reversal; and SPG was in the Real Estate group:

                   GROUP AND END MARKET           START            END     
4800 GPAGF        Packaged Goods  US/intl   09/26/14  49,921  12/09  57,062

                   GROUP AND END MARKET           START        END OF MONTH
500 CCI           Util, Telecom    US/Aus   12/15/14  37,778  12/31  43,385
14 ADP19C97.5     Software           intl   11/25/16  11,513  12/31  19,460
60 ARCC18C15      Investments          US   03/28/16   4,315  12/31   8,700
60 ARCC18C17      Investments          US   05/25/16   1,495  12/31   2,400
2 AZO18C800       Auto Parts       US/Mex   07/25/16  15,468  12/31  14,000
14 CCI18C95       Util, Telecom    US/Aus   08/25/16   9,259  12/31   5,740
20 CCE17C50       Beverage, Soft       EU   04/24/15   5,824  12/31     200
20 CMCSA18C55     Entertainment      intl   01/25/16  14,564  12/31  33,600
14 EL17C85        Personal Prods     intl   10/23/15  11,079  12/31     140
10 HD18C125       Home Furnish        NAm   10/25/16  10,406  12/31  16,800
10 HD18C130       Home Furnish        NAm   02/25/16  13,246  12/31  13,750
4 LMT18C220       Aerosp & Def    US/intl   12/15/15   8,567  12/31  15,200
3 MCD17C90        Restaurants     US/intl   12/15/14   2,320  12/31   9,645
10 MCD18C125      Restaurants     US/intl   06/24/16   7,576  12/31   6,450
10 NI117C45       Util, Energy         US   01/27/15   3,096  12/31   2,500
28 RAI17C38.75    Tobacco Prods        US   02/25/15   7,075  12/31  48,860
30 RAI18C50       Tobacco Prods        US   09/23/16   9,032  12/31  22,980
14 STZ17C125      Beverage, Hard     intl   08/25/15  18,611  12/31  39,060
14 TJX17C70       Retail,Variety  US/intl   03/25/15  11,457  12/31   7,700
10 TRV18C115      Insurance       US/intl   11/25/15  10,812  12/31  13,500
6 UNh18C135       HC Plans             US   04/25/16   8,845  12/31  19,290
10 UNh19C165      HC Plans             US   12/16/16  19,546  12/31  20,250

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
  JAN   FEB   MAR   APR    MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC
   -7    13    24   -14     -5    21    17   -35   -19     7     3    30

Irregular Strategy

Buying in the Irregular Strategy has ended and the portfolio is empty.

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
  JAN   FEB   MAR   APR    MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC
    7                                                                   

Real Estate Fund Strategy

Portfolio

                      DESCRIPTION                 START        END OF MONTH
14 IYR17C72    iShares US Real Estate ETF   08/25/15   6,375  12/31   6,720
42 IYR17C76    iShares US Real Estate ETF   10/23/15  18,395  12/31   6,930
33 IYR18C72    iShares US Real Estate ETF   02/25/16  17,359  12/31  28,050
14 IYR18C75    iShares US Real Estate ETF   12/15/15   8,237  12/31   9,240
28 IYR18C76    iShares US Real Estate ETF   11/25/15  15,438  12/31  17,360
20 IYR18C78    iShares US Real Estate ETF   10/25/16   9,764  12/31  10,200
14 IYR18C80    iShares US Real Estate ETF   06/24/16   7,565  12/31   5,600
40 IYR18C83    iShares US Real Estate ETF   08/25/16  19,448  12/31  12,200
14 IYR18C85    iShares US Real Estate ETF   07/25/16   7,719  12/31   3,598
20 IYR19C76    iShares US Real Estate ETF   11/25/16  11,824  12/31  14,700
20 IYR19C77    iShares US Real Estate ETF   12/16/16  12,024  12/31  13,800

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
  JAN   FEB   MAR   APR    MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC
  -15    -5    35   -10      9    36    35   -28   -19   -67   -13    34

Easy Strategy

Buying in the Easy Strategy has been suspended indefinitely.

Portfolio

                       DESCRIPTION                START        END OF MONTH
85 SPY18C217        SPDR S&P 500 ETF        10/10/16 118,598  12/31 154,785

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
  JAN   FEB   MAR   APR    MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC
  -39    -1    35    12                                  -17    33    20

Treasury bond Strategy

Portfolio

Due to carelessness, the purchase was a day early:

                       DESCRIPTION                START        END OF MONTH
14 IEF18C111   7-10 Year Treasury bond ETF  10/25/16   2,730  12/31   1,050
14 IEF19C106   7-10 Year Treasury bond ETF  12/05/16   4,363  12/31   3,710

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
  JAN   FEB   MAR   APR    MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC
                                                           0    -1    -1