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2016 October Update


All hedges were closed and the Easy Strategy was restored this month. Price histories, adjusted for splits and dividends, were downloaded from Yahoo.


I have been using both the Comprehensive Strategy and the Easy Strategy, but there should be only one stock market strategy. After this month, purchases in the Easy Strategy will be suspended indefinitely.

I have been using both the Tangible Real Estate Strategy and the Real Estate Fund Strategy, but there should be only one real estate strategy. I sold my tangible real estate this year.

I have decided to add a Treasury bond Strategy to trade IEF (7-10 year Treasury bond ETF). The strategy will use selling and buying signals based on 10-box reversals (signals). The LEAPs have unusually low premium ratios, so are preferable to the ETF.

Comprehensive Strategy hedges

Portfolio

All hedges were closed when the January Barometer defensive period ended. There will be no more hedging until the next January Barometer defensive period begins.

                   GROUP AND END MARKET           START            END     
20 AMBA17P42      Semiconductors     intl   04/18/16  15,124  10/10     976
100 AMX17P11      Util, Telecom  Mex/intl   07/06/16   7,987  10/10   4,113
6 BIIB17P245      Biotechnology      intl   07/06/16  14,755  10/10   2,771
40 CAR17P22.5     Rental Servs       intl   04/18/16  14,480  10/10   1,240
30 CF17P30        Agriculture        intl   04/18/16  11,072  10/10  19,648
120 DB17P15       Banks              intl   04/18/16  19,903  10/10  25,697
20 DISH17P45      Util, Telecom        US   04/18/16   9,704  10/10   2,036
20 IAC17P45       Info Servs      US/intl   04/18/16   8,724  10/10     496
60 LCI17P17.5     Drugs                US   04/18/16  21,055  10/10   3,065
20 M17P40         Retail,Variety       US   04/18/16   8,064  10/10   8,636
80 NOV17P27.5     Oil & Gas          intl   04/18/16  27,879  10/10   2,889
20 RH17P40        Home Furnish     US/Can   04/18/16   9,824  10/10  16,316
10 RL17P95        Apparel            intl   04/18/16   8,416  10/10   2,114
80 TDC17P22.5     Electron Eqpt   US/intl   04/18/16  15,671  10/10   1,609
20 VMW17P50       Software        US/intl   04/18/16  12,224  10/10     417

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
  NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB   MAR   APR    MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT
                                -28     -4    26   -54   -42     3   -14

Comprehensive Strategy investments

Selection list

The selection list should have been generated before the October 25 market opening. Due to carlessness, it was generated before the October 24 market opening.

                                    MERIT    PRICE   GROUP AND END MARKET  
ARCC   Ares Capital                  887     15.34  Investments          US
MCD    McDonald's Corp               812    113.93  Restaurants     US/intl
RAI    Reynolds American             718     53.78  Tobacco Prods        US
MO     Altria Group                  555     63.70  Tobacco Prods   US/intl
SPG    Simon Property                532    196.55  Real Estate        intl
HD     Home Depot                    510    126.60  Home Furnish        NAm
CCI    Crown Castle                  509     94.92  Util, Telecom    US/Aus
UNH    UnitedHealth Group            487    145.37  HC Plans             US
LMT    Lockheed Martin               483    230.52  Aerosp & Def    US/intl
EL     Estee Lauder                  482     86.51  Personal Prods     intl
STZ    Constellation Brands          473    167.41  Beverage, Hard     intl
AZO    AutoZone Inc                  469    746.98  Auto Parts       US/Mex
TJX    TJX Companies                 459     73.49  Retail,Variety  US/intl
PM     Philip Morris                 431     96.31  Tobacco Prods      intl
ROST   Ross Stores                   427     63.40  Retail,Variety       US
SJM    JM Smucker                    417 X  130.01  Packaged Goods     intl
AMT    American Tower                417    115.71  Real Estate        intl
CCE    Coca-Cola European Partners   408     37.83  Beverage, Soft       EU
NOC    Northrop Grumman              408    215.86  Aerosp & Def       intl
COST   Costco Wholesale              404    148.97  Retail,Variety  US/intl

Portfolio

I bought more HD because all stocks were disqualified on the first pass and the market exposures of ARCC, MCD, and RAI were above the $70,000 tranche size. ARCC, MCD, RAI, HD, CCI, UNH, LMT, EL, STZ, AZO, TJX, and CCE were already investments; SPG and AMT were in the Real Estate group; and MO, PM, ROST, SJM, NOC, and COST were in the same group and end market as existing investments:

                   GROUP AND END MARKET           START        END OF MONTH
500 CCI           Util, Telecom    US/Aus   12/15/14  37,778  10/31  45,495
4800 GPAGF        Packaged Goods  US/intl   09/26/14  49,921  10/31  66,931
60 ARCC18C15      Investments          US   03/28/16   4,315  10/31   4,500
60 ARCC18C17      Investments          US   05/25/16   1,495  10/31   1,020
2 AZO18C800       Auto Parts       US/Mex   07/25/16  15,468  10/31   7,500
14 CCI18C95       Util, Telecom    US/Aus   08/25/16   9,259  10/31   7,070
20 CCE17C50       Beverage, Soft       EU   04/24/15   5,824  10/31   6,600
20 CMCSA18C55     Entertainment      intl   01/25/16  14,564  10/31  20,400
14 EL17C85        Personal Prods     intl   10/23/15  11,079  10/31   6,860
10 HD18C125       Home Furnish        NAm   10/25/16  10,406  10/31   9,350
10 HD18C130       Home Furnish        NAm   02/25/16  13,246  10/31   7,200
4 LMT18C220       Aerosp & Def    US/intl   12/15/15   8,567  10/31  14,520
3 MCD17C90        Restaurants     US/intl   12/15/14   2,320  10/31   6,570
10 MCD18C125      Restaurants     US/intl   06/24/16   7,576  10/31   2,560
10 NI117C45       Util, Energy         US   01/27/15   3,096  10/31   3,700
28 RAI17C38.75    Tobacco Prods        US   02/25/15   7,075  10/31  46,480
30 RAI18C50       Tobacco Prods        US   09/23/16   9,032  10/31  16,500
14 STZ17C125      Beverage, Hard     intl   08/25/15  18,611  10/31  60,620
14 TJX17C70       Retail,Variety  US/intl   03/25/15  11,457  10/31   7,140
10 TRV18C115      Insurance       US/intl   11/25/15  10,812  10/31   5,800
6 UNH18C135       HC Plans             US   04/25/16   8,845  10/31  10,200

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
  NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB   MAR   APR    MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT
    4    -2    -7    13    24   -14     -5    21    17   -35   -19     7

Irregular Strategy

Buying in the Irregular Strategy has ended and the portfolio is empty.

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
  NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB   MAR   APR    MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT
   -9    -7     7                                                       

Real Estate Fund Strategy

Portfolio

                      DESCRIPTION                 START        END OF MONTH
14 IYR17C72    iShares US Real Estate ETF   08/25/15   6,375  10/31   7,630
42 IYR17C76    iShares US Real Estate ETF   10/23/15  18,395  10/31  11,004
33 IYR18C72    iShares US Real Estate ETF   02/25/16  17,359  10/31  22,935
14 IYR18C75    iShares US Real Estate ETF   12/15/15   8,237  10/31   7,000
28 IYR18C76    iShares US Real Estate ETF   11/25/15  15,438  10/31  12,740
20 IYR18C78    iShares US Real Estate ETF   10/25/16   9,764  10/31   7,800
14 IYR18C80    iShares US Real Estate ETF   06/24/16   7,565  10/31   4,270
40 IYR18C83    iShares US Real Estate ETF   08/25/16  19,448  10/31   8,000
14 IYR18C85    iShares US Real Estate ETF   07/25/16   7,719  10/31   2,226

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
  NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB   MAR   APR    MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT
   -2     2   -15    -5    35   -10      9    36    35   -28   -19   -67

Easy Strategy

Portfolio

The proceeds of $119,948 from the closeout sales in April were reinvested on October 10.

                       DESCRIPTION                START        END OF MONTH
85 SPY18C217        SPDR S&P 500 ETF        10/10/16 118,598  10/31 101,320

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
  NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB   MAR   APR    MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT
    3   -22   -39    -1    35    12                                  -17

Treasury bond Strategy

Portfolio

                       DESCRIPTION                START        END OF MONTH
14 IEF18C111   7-10 Year Treasury bond ETF  10/25/16   2,730  10/31   2,450

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
  NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB   MAR   APR    MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT
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