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2016 January Update


The January Barometer was negative. Price histories, adjusted for splits and dividends, were downloaded from Yahoo.


Because the January Barometer was negative, I will start defensive action on April 18 and end it on October 10. All stocks and call options in the Comprehensive Stragegy investments portfolio will be hedged with put options. The Easy Strategy portfolio will be sold. The Real Estate Fund portfolio will not be defended.

Comprehensive Strategy investments

Selection list

The selection list was generated before the January 25 market opening:

                                    MERIT    PRICE   GROUP AND END MARKET  
ARG    Airgas Inc                    591    138.60  Chemicals          intl
MCD    McDonald's Corp               520    118.40  Restaurants     US/intl
CCI    Crown Castle                  454     81.62  Util, Telecom    US/Aus
LB     L Brands                      431     95.92  Apparel          US/Can
SPG    Simon Property                430    187.32  Real Estate        intl
MO     Altria Group                  379     58.28  Tobacco Prods   US/intl
CCE    Coca-Cola Enterprises         371 X   45.34  Beverage, Soft       EU
RAI    Reynolds American             363     46.30  Tobacco Prods        US
HD     Home Depot                    323    122.76  Home Furnish        NAm
AGN    Allergen plc                  314    298.04  Drugs              intl
ABC    AmerisourceBergen Corp        312 X   91.00  Drugs           US/intl
LMT    Lockheed Martin               312    212.04  Aerosp & Def    US/intl
EL     Estee Lauder                  311     85.69  Personal Prods     intl
STZ    Constellation Brands          309    148.76  Beverage, Hard     intl
CI     Cigna Corp                    304 X  137.90  HC Plans        US/intl
AZO    AutoZone Inc                  301    728.32  Auto Parts       US/Mex
TJX    TJX Companies                 301     68.95  Retail,Variety  US/intl
COST   Costco Wholesale              287    153.69  Retail,Variety  US/intl
UNH    UnitedHealth Group            282    114.33  HC Plans             US
CMCSA  Comcast Corp                  269     55.33  Entertainment      intl

Portfolio

Invesment purchases are now confined to call options. The portfolios for call options and stocks have been transferred to the portfolio for investments.

I sold HD16C92.5 before it expired.

I chose CMCSA for the purchase. Every stock higher in the list was disqualified because it was being merged (ARG), was already an investment (MCD, CCI, LB, CCE, RAI, AGN, LMT, EL, STZ, CI, and TJX), was in the Real Estate group (SPG), was in the same group and end market as an existing investment (MO, ABC, COST, UNH), exceeded the price limit (AZO), or was in the wash sale period (HD):

                   GROUP AND END MARKET           START            END     
3 HD16C92.5       Home Furnish       NAm    08/27/14   1,984  01/06  11,149

                   GROUP AND END MARKET           START        END OF MONTH
150 AGN           Drugs              intl   02/25/15  43,907  01/31  42,664
500 CCI           Util, Telecom    US/Aus   12/15/14  37,778  01/31  43,100
500 CI            HC Plans        US/intl   03/25/15  64,479  01/31  66,800
20 CMCSA          Entertainment      intl   01/25/16  14,564  01/31  15,000
300 GILD          Biotechnology      intl   04/25/14  22,206  01/31  24,900
1200 GMKYY        Packaged Goods  US/intl   09/26/14  49,921  01/31  71,640
20 CCE17C50       Beverage, Soft       EU   04/24/15   5,824  01/31   4,200
14 EL17C85        Personal Prods     intl   10/23/15  11,079  01/31  11,620
10 LB17C93        Apparel          US/Can   09/25/15  10,516  01/31  11,300
4 LMT18C220       Aerosp & Def    US/intl   12/15/15   8,567  01/31   5,960
3 MCD17C90        Restaurants     US/intl   12/15/14   2,320  01/31   9,840
10 NI117C45       Util, Energy         US   01/27/15   3,096  01/31   1,400
28 RAI17C38.75    Tobacco Prods        US   02/25/15   7,075  01/31  28,560
14 STZ17C125      Beverage, Hard     intl   08/25/15  18,611  01/31  45,402
14 TJX17C70       Retail,Variety  US/intl   03/25/15  11,457  01/31  10,598
10 TRV18C115      Insurance       US/intl   11/25/15  10,812  01/31   6,900

Capital gains, investments

Thousands of US$
   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN
                                                    50     4    -2    -7

Capital gains, stocks

Thousands of US$
   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN
    24    -4   -11    16     6    -4    -8   -13                        

Capital gains, call options

Thousands of US$
   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN
     6   -11   -14     4    -7    12    -6    -2                        

Comprehensive Strategy hedges

There will be no hedges until we enter a January Barometer defensive period.

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN
               -24    15     5    47    73    29   -90                  

Irregular Strategy

Buying in the Irregular Strategy has ended.

Portfolio

I sold IEF16C105 before it expired.

 
                      DESCRIPTION                 START            END     
IEF16C105    7-10 Year Treasury        100  08/07/14  15,461  01/06  15,213

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN
   -18     1     0    -9   -12     3     1     2    -4    -9    -7     7

Real Estate Fund Strategy

Portfolio

I sold 2016 IYR options before they expired. To prevent creating a wash sale, there was no purchase. The $18,352 proceeds from the sales will be reinvested on February 25:

                      DESCRIPTION                 START            END     
3 IYR16C63     iShares US Real Estate       12/13/13   1,450  01/06   3,680
6 IYR16C65     iShares US Real Estate       01/27/14   2,790  01/06   6,143
3 IYR16C67     iShares US Real Estate       03/27/14   1,288  01/06   2,459
3 IYR16C69     iShares US Real Estate       02/27/14   1,270  01/06   1,868
8 IYR16C70     iShares US Real Estate       09/26/14   3,067  01/06   4,202

                      DESCRIPTION                 START        END OF MONTH
14 IYR17C72     iShares US Real Estate      08/25/15   6,375  01/31   5,670
42 IYR17C76     iShares US Real Estate      10/23/15  18,395  01/31  10,500
14 IYR18C75     iShares US Real Estate      12/15/15   8,237  01/31   6,160
14 IYR18C76     iShares US Real Estate      11/25/15   7,719  01/31   5,670

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN
   -29     3   -28    -7   -22     9   -15    -8    10    -2     2   -15

Easy Strategy

Portfolio

                      DESCRIPTION                 START        END OF MONTH
60 SPY17C205       SPDR S&P 500 ETF         10/09/15  76,855  01/31  42,360
6 SPY18C190        SPDR S&P 500 ETF         01/25/16  11,233  01/31  12,054
8 SPY18C210        SPDR S&P 500 ET          11/25/15  14,939  01/31   8,336

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN
    21   -12     1                                  18     3   -22   -39