Home  choices  barometer  timing  tests  signals  realty  easy  buy  sell  lists

2015 August Update


There were hedging positions as well as investment positions this month. Price histories, adjusted for splits and dividends, were downloaded from Yahoo.


Recent analysis on the tests page showed options with high merits outperformed stocks with strong uptrends. Consequently, buying in the Comprehensive Strategy for stocks has ended.

The Comprehensive Strategy for stocks has proven to be profitable. It is still recommended for accounts that allow stock trading but not option trading.

Comprehensive Strategy for calls

Selection list

The selection list was generated before the August 25 market opening:

                                    MERIT    PRICE   GROUP AND END MARKET  
MCD    McDonald's Corp               502     92.87  Restaurants     US/intl
LB     L Brands                      458 X   78.07  Apparel          US/Can
CI     Cigna Corp                    453 X  135.75  HC Plans        US/intl
SPG    Simon Property                424    182.07  Real Estate        intl
CCI    Crown Castle                  420     79.93  Util, Telecom    US/Aus
RAI    Reynolds American             414     80.81  Tobacco Prods        US
AXP    American Express              380 X   74.65  Credit Servs    US/intl
MO     Altria Group                  376     52.14  Tobacco Prods   US/intl
CCE    Coca-Cola Enterprises         365     50.60  Beverage, Soft       EU
HD     Home Depot                    364    112.54  Home Furnish        NAm
AGN    Allergan plc                  353 X  291.82  Drugs            NAm/EU
EL     Estee Lauder                  351 X   76.56  Personal Prods     intl
TJX    TJX Companies                 339     69.43  Retail,Variety  US/intl
ROST   Ross Stores                   333 X   48.33  Apparel              US
NRF    NorthStar Realty              329 X   14.26  Real Estate          EU
STZ    Constellation Brands          327    119.28  Beverage, Hard     intl
PRGO   Perrigo Co                    326    178.50  Drugs              intl
MCK    McKesson Corp                 324 X  197.80  Drugs           US/intl
DRI    Darden Restaurants            322     66.77  Restaurants      US/Can
ABC    AmerisourceBergen Corp        317 X   98.53  Drugs           US/intl

Portfolio

I chose STZ for the purchase. Stocks higher on the list were disqualified because they were already investments, were in the same group and end market as existing investments, were more than halfway towards a trend reversal, or were in the Real Estate group. I mistakenly bought 14 contracts instead of the 10 indicated by the tranche table:

             GROUP AND END MARKET     QTY       START        END OF MONTH  
CCE17C50    Beverage, Soft       EU    20  04/24/15  5,824  08/31/15 12,200
DFS16C60    Credit Servs         US     3  03/27/14  1,918  08/31/15    333
EL17C92.5   Personal Prods     intl    10  05/22/15  8,716  08/31/15  4,000
HD16C92.5   Home Furnish        NAm     3  08/27/14  1,984  08/31/15  7,500
MCD17C90    Restaurants     US/intl     3  12/15/14  2,320  08/31/15  3,225
NI117C45    Util, Energy         US    10  01/27/15  3,096  08/31/15  3,100
PII16C130   Recreation      US/intl     2  06/27/14  3,426  08/31/15  1,910
RAI17C77.5  Tobacco Prods        US    14  02/25/15  7,075  08/31/15 13,440
STZ17C125   Beverage, Hard     intl    14  08/25/15 18,611  08/31/15 19,880
TGNA116C32  Publishing      US/intl    10  10/27/14  3,056  08/31/15  1,550
TJX17C70    Retail,Variety  US/intl    14  03/25/15 11,457  08/31/15 11,480

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP
     3    19     7    -5     6   -11   -14     4    -7    12    -6      

Comprehensive Strategy for stocks

Buying in the Comprehensive Strategy for stocks has ended.

Portfolio

I sold LB to raise cash for hedging and to reduce the need for hedging. LB was chosen because it was the only one with a loss.

             GROUP AND END MARKET     QTY       START             END      
LB          Apparel          US/Can   500  01/27/15 42,723  08/06/15 40,501

             GROUP AND END MARKET     QTY       START        END OF MONTH  
AGN         Drugs              intl   150  02/25/15 43,907  08/31/15 45,561
CCI         Util, Telecom    US/Aus   500  12/15/14 37,778  08/31/15 41,695
CI          HC Plans        US/intl   500  03/25/15 64,479  08/31/15 70,395
GILD        Biotechnology      intl   300  04/25/14 22,206  08/31/15 31,521
GMK         Packaged Goods  US/intl  1200  09/26/14 49,921  08/31/15 64,788
HII         Aerosp & Def         US   300  10/27/14 29,408  08/31/15 33,774

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP
     6     9   -12    -6    24    -4   -11    16     6    -4    -8      

Comprehensive Strategy for puts

Selection list

The selection list was generated before the August 6 market opening.

                                    MERIT    PRICE   GROUP AND END MARKET  
TDC    Teradata Corp                 203     36.27  Electron Eqpt   US/intl
SSYS   Stratasys Ltd                 202     28.00  Computers          intl
COH    Coach Inc                     198     31.73  Apparel         US/intl
VIAV   Viavi Solutions               195      6.29  Electron Eqpt      intl
DDD    3D Systems                    193     11.70  Computers          intl
GNW    Genworth Financial            188      5.65  Insurance       US/intl
AVP    Avon Products                 186      6.02  Personal Prods     intl
YELP   Yelp Inc                      178     26.13  Info Servs           US
ECA    Encana Corp                   176      6.78  Oil & Gas        Can/US
WYNN   Wynn Resorts                  174    101.27  Entertaninment   US/Chn
ESV    Ensco plc                     174     16.15  Oil & Gas          intl
KORS   Michael Kors                  173     39.49  Apparel            intl
NBL    Noble Energy                  167     33.41  Oil & Gas          intl
QEP    QEP Resources                 164     13.51  Oil & Gas            US
APA    Apache Corp                   159     44.44  Oil & Gas       US/intl
JOY    Joy Global                    157     25.02  Machinery          intl
DO     Diamond Offshore              154     20.95  Oil & Gas          intl
APOL   Apollo Education              154     12.71  Business Servs  US/intl
MPEL   Melco Crown Entertainment     151     21.49  Entertainment       Chn
ABX    Barrick Gold                  148      6.54  Precious Metal     intl

Portfolio

Before the August 6 market opening the exposure of the investments was $584,755 (excluding LB, which was slated to be sold on August 6), the exposure of the hedges was $527,835, and the tranche size was $50,000.

I bought YELP16P25 to restore neutrality. Stocks higher on the list were disqualified because they were already hedges or were in the same group and end market as existing hedges:

             GROUP AND END MARKET     QTY       START        END OF MONTH  
AVP16P8     Personal Prods     intl   100  04/17/15 12,687  08/31/15 30,000
COH16P40    Apparel         US/intl    20  04/17/15  6,524  08/31/15 22,600
FCX16P20    Basic Matls        intl    40  04/17/15  9,959  08/31/15 38,200
GNW16P8     Insurance       US/intl   140  04/17/15 18,185  08/31/15 44,800
HAL16P47    Oil & Gas          intl    20  04/17/15  9,064  08/31/15 18,100
JIVE16P5    Software           intl   200  04/17/15 17,165  08/31/15 19,000
NSR16P27    Util, Telecom      intl    40  04/17/15 15,239  08/31/15 11,600
P16P15      Entertainment        US    60  04/17/15 11,455  08/31/15 11,700
SINA16P35   Internet Servs      Chn    30  04/17/15 11,932  08/31/15  9,300
SODA16P20   Beverage, Soft     intl    40  04/17/15 12,186  08/31/15 23,600
SSYS16P30   Computers          intl    30  07/06/15  9,572  08/31/15 12,600
TDC16P42.5  Electron Eqpt   US/intl    20  04/17/15  7,224  08/31/15 27,600
YELP16P25   Info Servs           US    40  08/06/15 13,070  08/31/15 16,600
ZU16P14     Retail,Variety  US/intl    60  04/17/15 16,075  08/31/15  1,200

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP
                                       -24    15     5    47    73      

Irregular Strategy

Buying in the Irregular Strategy has ended.

Portfolio

                  ASSET CLASS         QTY       START        END OF MONTH  
HYG16C92              Bonds           100  08/07/14 16,386  08/31/15  1,000
IEF16C105             Bonds           100  08/07/14 15,461  08/31/15 24,800

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP
    13    -2     1    27   -18     1     0    -9   -12     3     1      

Real Estate Fund Strategy

Portfolio

                  DESCRIPTION         QTY       START        END OF MONTH  
IYR16C65       US Real Estate ETF       3  11/20/13  1,495                 
IYR16C63       US Real Estate ETF       3  12/13/13  1,450                 
IYR16C65       US Real Estate ETF       3  01/27/14  1,294                 
IYR16C69       US Real Estate ETF       3  02/27/14  1,270                 
IYR16C67       US Real Estate ETF       3  03/27/14  1,288                 
IYR16C70       US Real Estate ETF       3  04/25/14  1,180                 
IYR16C72       US Real Estate ETF       3  05/27/14  1,060                 
IYR16C72       US Real Estate ETF       5  06/27/14  1,882                 
IYR16C73       US Real Estate ETF       5  07/25/14  1,912                 
IYR16C74       US Real Estate ETF       5  08/27/14  1,897                 
IYR16C70       US Real Estate ETF       5  09/26/14  1,887                 
IYR16C74       US Real Estate ETF       5  10/27/14  1,902                 
IYR17C75       US Real Estate ETF       5  11/20/14  2,417                 
IYR17C76       US Real Estate ETF       5  12/15/14  3,162                 
IYR17C83       US Real Estate ETF      50  01/27/15 31,697                 
IYR17C80       US Real Estate ETF      14  02/25/15  7,649                 
IYR17C81       US Real Estate ETF      14  03/25/15  7,313                 
IYR17C80       US Real Estate ETF      14  04/24/15  6,207                 
IYR17C77       US Real Estate ETF      14  05/22/15  6,459                 
IYR17C72       US Real Estate ETF      14  08/25/15  6,375                 

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP
    25    12     9    22   -29     3   -28    -7   -22     9   -15      

Easy Strategy

Portfolio

The $72,685 proceeds from the sales on April 17 will be reinvested on October 9.

                  DESCRIPTION         QTY       START        END OF MONTH  
SPY17C---      S&P 500 Index ETF                                           

Capital gains

Thousands of US$
   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP
     9     9     2   -16    21   -12     1