Home  choices  barometer  timing  tests  signals  realty  easy  buy  sell  lists

2015 March Update


The selection lists were generated before the March 25 market opening. Price histories, adjusted for splits and dividends, were downloaded from Yahoo.


Low-priced stocks have been freshly analyzed on the tests page. As a result, the minimum price for investing in stocks has been raised from $5 to $10. The minimimum price for hedging with stocks remains at $5.

Comprehensive Strategy, call options

Selection list

                                   MERIT     PRICE   GROUP AND END MARKET  
MCD    McDonald's Corp              582      99.36  Restaurants     US/intl
CCI    Crown Castle                 558      85.84  Util, Telecom    US/Aus
FDO    Family Dollar Stores         537      79.61  Retail,Variety       US
LB     L Brands                     502      94.09  Apparel          US/Can
NRF    NorthStar Realty Finance     428      18.61  Real Estate          US
AXP    American Express             411 X    81.37  Credit Servs    US/intl
EPD    Enterprise Products          401 X    32.25  Oil & Gas            US
RAI    Reynolds American            391      71.23  Tobacco Prods        US
ABC    AmerisourceBergen Corp       390     113.89  Drugs           US/intl
DRI    Darden Restaurants           369      69.73  Restaurants      US/Can
LO     Lorillard Inc                366      67.81  Tobacco Prods        US
HD     Home Depot                   365     116.15  Home Furnish        NAm
ROST   Ross Stores                  354     106.64  Apparel              US
TJX    TJX Companies                353      70.08  Retail,Variety  US/intl
UNP    Union Pacific                352     112.51  Railroads            US
CI     Cigna Corp                   341     129.57  HC Plans        US/intl
CCE    Coca-Cola Enterprises        338      44.06  Beverage, Soft       EU
PAA    Plains All-American Pipe_    337 X    46.99  Oil & Gas        US/Can
DTV    DIRECTV                      334      85.94  Util, Telecom    US/LAm
UNH    UnitedHealth Group           329     118.12  HC Plans             US

Portfolio

I chose TJX for the purchase. MCD, CCI, LB, RAI, and HD were disqualified because they were already investments. FDO was disqualified because it was being acquired. AXP and EPD were disqualififed because they were more than halfway towards a trend reversal. NRF was disqualified because it is in the Real Estate group. ABC and LO were disqualified because they were in the same group and end market as existing investments:

             GROUP AND END MARKET     QTY       START        END OF MONTH   
DFS16C60    Credit Servs         US     3  03/27/14  1,918  03/31/15    735
GCI16C32    Publishing      US/intl    10  10/27/14  3,056  03/31/15  5,700
HD16C92.5   Home Furnish        NAm     3  08/27/14  1,984  03/31/15  7,065
LUV16C35    Airlines             US    10  09/26/14  3,826  03/31/15 10,900
MCD17C90    Restaurants     US/intl     3  12/15/14  2,320  03/31/15  3,645
NI17C45     Util, Energy         US    10  01/27/15  3,096  03/31/15  4,700
PII16C130   Recreation      US/intl     2  06/27/14  3,426  03/31/15  3,880
PKG16C72.5  Packaging        NAm/EU     3  02/27/14  2,452  03/31/15  2,970
PPC16C22.5  Meat Prods      US/intl    10  04/25/14  4,756  03/31/15  8,400
RAI17C77.5  Tobacco Prods        US    14  02/25/15  7,075  03/31/15  5,180
TJX17C70    Retail,Variety  US/intl    14  03/25/15 11,457  03/31/15 11,760
UNP16C105   Railroads            US     3  07/25/14  2,335  03/31/15  2,970
UNP16C87.5  Railroads            US     2  01/27/14  1,639  03/31/15  4,670
YHOO17C55   Info Servs         intl     5  11/20/14  4,517  03/31/15  1,760

Capital gains

  MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC    JAN    FEB    MAR
 8145   8743   4505  19637  -5040   3324  18938   6812  -4838   6151 -11183

Comprehensive Strategy, stocks

Selection list

                                   TREND     PRICE   GROUP AND END MARKET  
LB     L Brands                     312      94.09  Apparel          US/Can
ACT    Actavis plc                  273     309.13  Drugs              intl
EPD    Enterprise Products          258 X    32.25  Oil & Gas       US/intl
BIIB   Biogen Idec                  250     452.71  Biotechnology   US/intl
MCD    McDonald's Corp              243      99.36  Restaurants     US/intl
ROST   Ross Stores                  234     106.64  Apparel              US
AXP    American Express             233 X    81.37  Credit Servs    US/intl
CI     Cigna Corp                   232     129.57  HC Plans        US/intl
REGN   Regeneron Pharmaceutical     228     473.74  Biotechnology   US/intl
PRGO   Perrigo Co                   224     165.92  Drugs              intl
CERN   Cerner Corp                  224      73.97  Info Servs         intl
NRF    NorthStar Realty Finance     222      18.61  Real Estate          US
VFC    VF Corp                      221      75.39  Apparel           US/EU
CCI    Crown Castle                 219      85.84  Util, Telecom    US/Aus
EL     Estee Lauder                 218      83.36  Personal Prods     intl
ABC    AmerisourceBergen Corp       217     113.89  Drugs           US/intl
UNP    Union Pacific                211     112.51  Railroads            US
TJX    TJX Companies                211      70.08  Retail,Variety  US/intl
CCE    Coca-Cola Enterprises        208      44.06  Beverage, Soft       EU
UNH    UnitedHealth Group           208     118.12  HC Plans             US

Portfolio

I chose CI for the purchase. LB, ACT, and MCD were disqualified because they were already investments. EPD was disqualified because it was more than halfway towards a trend reversal. BIIB, ROST, and AXP were disqualified because they were in the same group and end market as existing investments:

             GROUP AND END MARKET     QTY       START        END OF MONTH  
ACT         Drugs              intl   150  02/25/15 43,907  03/31/15 44,643
AER         Rental Servs     US/Rus   700  11/20/14 30,276  03/31/15 30,555
AWH         Insurance            US   600  03/27/14 20,356  03/31/15 24,240
CCI         Util, Telecom    US/Aus   500  12/15/14 37,778  03/31/15 41,270
CI          HC Plans        US/intl   500  03/25/15 64,479  03/31/15 64,720
GILD        Biotechnology      intl   300  04/25/14 22,206  03/31/15 29,439
GMK         Packaged Goods  US/intl  1200  09/26/14 49,921  03/31/15 60,972
HII         Aerosp & Def         US   300  10/27/14 29,408  03/31/15 42,045
LB          Apparel          US/Can   500  01/27/15 42,723  03/31/15 47,145
MU          Semiconductors     intl  1000  09/27/13 17,935  03/31/15 27,130

Capital gains

  MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC    JAN    FEB    MAR
-8385  10368 -10014  18864 -19787   5511   9244 -12437  -6291  24434  -4081

Comprehensive Strategy, hedges

All hedges were closed on 2014 October 27.

Irregular Strategy

Portfolio

The Irregular Strategy has been discontinued due to a dearth of candidates. There will be no more purchases.

                  ASSET CLASS         QTY       START        END OF MONTH  
HYG16C92              Bonds           100  08/07/14 16,386  03/31/15  8,200
IEF16C105             Bonds           100  08/07/14 15,461  03/31/15 35,000

Capital gains

  MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC    JAN    FEB    MAR
                      4653 -15500  12500  -1500   1300  27300 -18100    700

Real Estate Fund Strategy

Portfolio

                  DESCRIPTION         QTY       START             END      
IYR16C65       US Real Estate ETF       3  11/20/13  1,495                 
IYR16C63       US Real Estate ETF       3  12/13/13  1,450                 
IYR16C65       US Real Estate ETF       3  01/27/14  1,294                 
IYR16C69       US Real Estate ETF       3  02/27/14  1,270                 
IYR16C67       US Real Estate ETF       3  03/27/14  1,288                 
IYR16C70       US Real Estate ETF       3  04/25/14  1,180                 
IYR16C72       US Real Estate ETF       3  05/27/14  1,060                 
IYR16C72       US Real Estate ETF       5  06/27/14  1,882                 
IYR16C73       US Real Estate ETF       5  07/25/14  1,912                 
IYR16C74       US Real Estate ETF       5  08/27/14  1,897                 
IYR16C70       US Real Estate ETF       5  09/26/14  1,887                 
IYR16C74       US Real Estate ETF       5  10/27/14  1,902                 
IYR17C75       US Real Estate ETF       5  11/20/14  2,417                 
IYR17C76       US Real Estate ETF       5  12/15/14  3,162                 
IYR17C83       US Real Estate ETF      50  01/27/15 31,697                 
IYR17C80       US Real Estate ETF      14  02/25/15  7,649                 
IYR17C81       US Real Estate ETF      14  03/25/15  7,313                 

Capital gains

  MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC    JAN    FEB    MAR
 3885   1785   2935   7015 -20148  25019  11859   9253  22372 -29119   2827

Easy Strategy

Portfolio

                  DESCRIPTION         QTY       START             END      
SPY16C200      S&P 500 Index ETF       31  10/27/14 33,853                 
SPY17C210      S&P 500 Index ETF        2  11/20/14  3,248                 
SPY17C200      S&P 500 Index ETF        2  12/15/14  3,858                 
SPY17C205      S&P 500 Index ETF        3  01/27/15  5,290                 
SPY17C215      S&P 500 Index ETF        4  02/25/15  6,467                 
SPY17C210      S&P 500 Index ETF        4  03/25/15  6,723                 

Capital gains

  MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC    JAN    FEB    MAR
                                    8617   9215   1698 -16014  20521 -11731