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2015 February Update


The selection lists were generated before the February 25 market opening. Price histories, adjusted for splits and dividends, were downloaded from Yahoo.


The purchase amount for call options has been doubled. The amount is now twice the number of contracts (shares divided by 100) indicated in the table on the #buy page. The amount for put options already was twice the number of contracts.

The S&P 500 Index has been freshly analyzed. As a result there are minor changes in the January #Barometer defensive period and in optimum #timing for selling and buying.

Comprehensive Strategy, call options

Selection list

                                   MERIT     PRICE   GROUP AND END MARKET 
MCD    McDonald's Corp              618      94.98  Restaurants     US/intl
CCI    Crown Castle                 547      86.81  Util, Telecom    US/Aus
FDO    Family Dollar Stores         544      78.19  Retail,Variety       US
NRF    NorthStar Realty Finance     507      18.79  Real Estate          US
LB     L Brands                     471      91.53  Apparel          US/Can
RAI    Reynolds American            446      75.65  Tobacco Prods        US
LO     Lorillard Inc                391      69.36  Tobacco Prods        US
AXP    American Express             383 X    80.86  Credit Servs    US/intl
PAA    Plains All-American Pipe-    368      51.49  Oil & Gas        US/Can
HD     Home Depot                   365     116.75  Home Furnish        NAm
ABC    AmerisourceBergen Corp       364     102.97  Drugs           US/intl
MO     Atria Group                  361      55.72  Tobacco Prods        US
EPD    Enterprise Products          360 X    33.65  Oil & Gas            US
CCE    Coca-Cola Enterprises        353      45.33  Beverage, Soft       EU
EL     Estee Lauder                 349      81.77  Personal Prods     intl
UNP    Union Pacific                343     122.69  Railroads            US
DRI    Darden Restaurants           338      63.53  Restaurants      US/Can
ROST   Ross Stores                  328      98.07  Apparel              US
CI     Cigna Corp                   322     120.76  HC Plans        US/intl
TJX    TJX Companies                321      67.16  Retail,Variety  US/intl

Portfolio

I chose RAI for the purchase. MCD, CCI, and LB were disqualified because I already own them. FDO was disqualified because it is being acquired. NRF was disqualified because it is in the Real Estate group:

             GROUP AND END MARKET     QTY       START        END OF MONTH  
DFS16C60    Credit Servs         US     3  03/27/14  1,918  02/28/15  1,539
GCI16C32    Publishing      US/intl    10  10/27/14  3,056  02/28/15  4,800
HD16C92.5   Home Furnish        NAm     3  08/27/14  1,984  02/28/15  7,191
LUV16C35    Airlines             US    10  09/26/14  3,826  02/28/15 10,500
MCD17C90    Restaurants     US/intl     3  12/15/14  2,320  02/28/15  4,035
NI17C45     Util, Energy         US    10  01/27/15  3,096  02/28/15  4,400
PII16C130   Recreation      US/intl     2  06/27/14  3,426  02/28/15  5,840
PKG16C72.5  Packaging        NAm/EU     3  02/27/14  2,452  02/28/15  3,870
PPC16C22.5  Meat Prods      US/intl    10  04/25/14  4,756  02/28/15 10,100
RAI17C77.5  Tobacco Prods        US    14  02/25/15  7,075  02/28/15  7,056
UNP16C105   Railroads            US     3  07/25/14  2,335  02/28/15  5,865
UNP16C87.5  Railroads            US     2  01/27/14  1,639  02/28/15  7,040
YHOO17C55   Info Servs         intl     5  11/20/14  4,517  02/28/15  1,825

Capital gains

  MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC    JAN    FEB    MAR
 8145   8743   4505  19637  -5040   3324  18938   6812  -4838   6151       

Comprehensive Strategy, stocks

Selection list

                                   TREND     PRICE   GROUP AND END MARKET  
LB     L Brands                     310      91.53  Apparel          US/Can
ACT    Actavis plc                  266     289.11  Drugs              intl
EPD    Enterprise Products          258 X    33.65  Oil & Gas       US/intl
MCD    McDonald's Corp              243      94.98  Restaurants     US/intl
BIIB   Biogen Idec                  235     404.89  Biotechnology   US/intl
AXP    American Express             233 X    80.86  Credit Servs    US/intl
ROST   Ross Stores                  226      98.07  Apparel              US
CI     Cigna Corp                   225     120.76  HC Plans        US/intl
PRGO   Perrigo Co                   223     153.48  Drugs              intl
CERN   Cerner Corp                  223      72.78  Info Servs         intl
NRF    NorthStar Realty Finance     220      18.79  Real Estate          US
VFC    VF Corp                      220      76.32  Apparel           US/EU
CCI    Crown Castle                 219      86.81  Util, Telecom    US/Aus
REGN   Regeneron Pharmaceutical     217     420.64  Biotechnology   US/intl
EL     Estee Lauder                 217      81.77  Personal Prods     intl
UNP    Union Pacific                211     122.69  Railroads            US
TJX    TJX Companies                210      67.16  Retail,Variety  US/intl
CCE    Coca-Cola Enterprises        208      45.33  Beverage, Soft       EU
ABC    AmerisourceBergen Corp       207     102.97  Drugs           US/intl
UNH    UnitedHealth Group           204     115.43  HC Plans             US

Portfolio

I sold MPAA and MWE because they developed downtrends:

             GROUP AND END MARKET     QTY       START             END      
MPAA        Auto Parts       US/Can   700  02/27/14 17,135  02/02/15 18,252
MPAA        Auto Parts       US/Can  1000  08/27/14 30,055  02/02/15 26,075
MWE         Oil & Gas            US   300  12/15/11 16,044  02/02/15 17,941

I chose ACT for the purchase. LB was disqualified because I already own it:

             GROUP AND END MARKET     QTY       START        END OF MONTH  
ACT         Drugs              intl   150  02/25/15 43,907  02/28/15 43,704
AER         Rental Servs     US/Rus   700  11/20/14 30,276  02/28/15 31,150
AWH         Insurance            US   600  03/27/14 20,356  02/28/15 24,270
CCI         Util, Telecom    US/Aus   500  12/15/14 37,778  02/28/15 43,155
GILD        Biotechnology      intl   300  04/25/14 22,206  02/28/15 31,059
GMK         Packaged Goods  US/intl  1200  09/26/14 49,921  02/28/15 59,424
HII         Aerosp & Def         US   300  10/27/14 29,408  02/28/15 42,399
LB          Apparel          US/Can   500  01/27/15 42,723  02/28/15 45,930
MU          Semiconductors     intl  1000  09/27/13 17,935  02/28/15 30,670

Capital gains

  MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC    JAN    FEB    MAR
-8385  10368 -10014  18864 -19787   5511   9244 -12437  -6291  24434       

Comprehensive Strategy, hedges

All hedges were closed on 2014 October 27.

Irregular Strategy

Portfolio

The Irregular Strategy has been discontinued due to a dearth of candidates. There will be no more purchases.

                  ASSET CLASS         QTY       START        END OF MONTH  
HYG16C92              Bonds           100  08/07/14 16,386  02/28/15 10,500
IEF16C105             Bonds           100  08/07/14 15,461  02/28/15 32,000

Capital gains

  MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC    JAN    FEB    MAR
                      4653 -15500  12500  -1500   1300  27300 -18100       

Real Estate Fund Strategy

Portfolio

                  DESCRIPTION         QTY       START             END      
IYR16C65       US Real Estate ETF       3  11/20/13  1,495                 
IYR16C63       US Real Estate ETF       3  12/13/13  1,450                 
IYR16C65       US Real Estate ETF       3  01/27/14  1,294                 
IYR16C69       US Real Estate ETF       3  02/27/14  1,270                 
IYR16C67       US Real Estate ETF       3  03/27/14  1,288                 
IYR16C70       US Real Estate ETF       3  04/25/14  1,180                 
IYR16C72       US Real Estate ETF       3  05/27/14  1,060                 
IYR16C72       US Real Estate ETF       5  06/27/14  1,882                 
IYR16C73       US Real Estate ETF       5  07/25/14  1,912                 
IYR16C74       US Real Estate ETF       5  08/27/14  1,897                 
IYR16C70       US Real Estate ETF       5  09/26/14  1,887                 
IYR16C74       US Real Estate ETF       5  10/27/14  1,902                 
IYR17C75       US Real Estate ETF       5  11/20/14  2,417                 
IYR17C76       US Real Estate ETF       5  12/15/14  3,162                 
IYR17C83       US Real Estate ETF      50  01/27/15 31,697                 
IYR17C80       US Real Estate ETF      14  02/25/15  7,649                 

Capital gains

  MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC    JAN    FEB    MAR
 3885   1785   2935   7015 -20148  25019  11859   9253  22372 -29119       

Easy Strategy

Portfolio

                  DESCRIPTION         QTY       START             END      
SPY16C200      S&P 500 Index ETF       31  10/27/14 33,853                 
SPY17C210      S&P 500 Index ETF        2  11/20/14  3,248                 
SPY17C200      S&P 500 Index ETF        2  12/15/14  3,858                 
SPY17C205      S&P 500 Index ETF        3  01/27/15  5,290                 
SPY17C215      S&P 500 Index ETF        4  02/25/15  6,467                 

Capital gains

  MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC    JAN    FEB    MAR
                                    8617   9215   1698 -16014  20521