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2015 January Update


The selection lists were generated before the January 27 market opening. Price histories, adjusted for splits and dividends, were downloaded from Yahoo.


The January Barometer was negative. I will start defensive action on April 10 and end it on October 27. All stocks and call options in the Comprehensive Strategy portfolios will be hedged with put options. Everything in the Easy Strategy portfolio will be sold. The Real Estate Fund and Irregular portfolios will not be defended.

I have been unable to become fully invested since I increased the tranche size from $20,000 to $30,000 on the 2014 June update. Consequently, I am increasing the tranche size for all portfolios from $30,000 to $50,000.

Comprehensive Strategy, call options

Selection list

                                   MERIT     PRICE   GROUP AND END MARKET 
MCD    McDonald's Corp              639      90.67  Restaurants     US/intl
FDO    Family Dollar Stores         498      76.36  Retail,Variety       US
NI     NiSource Inc                 460      43.87  Util, Energy         US
CCI    Crown Castle                 438      88.05  Util, Telecom    US/Aus
LB     L Brands                     431      85.37  Apparel          US/Can
MO     Atria Group                  430      54.44  Tobacco Prods        US
LO     Lorillard Inc                424      66.02  Tobacco Prods        US
RAI    Reynolds American            398      70.02  Tobacco Prods        US
EPD    Enterprise Products          380 X    34.92  Oil & Gas            US
AXP    American Express             349      83.30  Credit Servs    US/intl
HD     Home Depot                   336     106.36  Home Furnish        NAm
UNP    Union Pacific                335     121.33  Railroads            US
DRI    Darden Restaurants           332      62.17  Restaurants      US/Can
ROST   Ross Stores                  326      95.23  Apparel              US
ACT    Actavis plc                  326     285.02  Drugs              intl
TJX    TJX Companies                322      68.14  Retail,Variety  US/intl
ABC    AmerisourceBergen Corp       321      95.85  Drugs           US/intl
VFC    VF Corp                      316      71.49  Apparel           US/EU
UNH    UnitedHealth Group           314     111.61  HC Plans             US
EL     Estee Lauder                 311      72.86  Personal Prods     intl

Portfolio

I sold the options that were nearing expiration:

             GROUP AND END MARKET     QTY       START             END      
ACT15C95    Drugs              intl     2  03/27/13  1,910  01/02/15 33,072
CI15C60     HC Plans        US/intl     3  01/25/13  2,317  01/02/15 12,979
CMCSK15C37  Entertainment      intl     5  12/14/12  2,047  01/02/15  9,898
HD15C77.5   Home Furnish        NAm     3  09/27/13  2,089  01/02/15  7,733
PII15C87.5  Recreation      US/intl     2  02/27/13  2,750  01/02/15 12,190
ROST15C65   Apparel              US     3  06/27/13  2,488  01/02/15  8,746
STZ15C65    Beverage, Hard  US/intl     3  10/25/13  2,284  01/02/15  9,529

I chose NI for the purchase. MCD was disqualified because I already own it. FDO was disqualified because it is being acquired:

             GROUP AND END MARKET     QTY       START        END OF MONTH  
DFS16C60    Credit Servs         US     3  03/27/14  1,918  01/31/15    930
GCI16C32    Publishing      US/intl    10  10/27/14  3,056  01/31/15  2,950
HD16C92.5   Home Furnish        NAm     3  08/27/14  1,984  01/31/15  4,935
LUV16C35    Airlines             US    10  09/26/14  3,826  01/31/15 12,400
MCD17C90    Restaurants     US/intl     3  12/15/14  2,320  01/31/15  2,490
NI17C45     Util, Energy         US    10  01/27/15  3,096  01/31/15  2,900
PII16C130   Recreation      US/intl     2  06/27/14  3,426  01/31/15  4,760
PKG16C72.5  Packaging        NAm/EU     3  02/27/14  2,452  01/31/15  2,670
PPC16C22.5  Meat Prods      US/intl    10  04/25/14  4,756  01/31/15 12,700
UNP16C105   Railroads            US     3  07/25/14  2,335  01/31/15  5,490
UNP16C87.5  Railroads            US     2  01/27/14  1,639  01/31/15  6,510
YHOO17C55   Info Servs         intl     5  11/20/14  4,517  01/31/15  2,100

Capital gains

  APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC    JAN    FEB
13622   8145   8743   4505  19637  -5040   3324  18938   6812  -4838       

Comprehensive Strategy, stocks

Selection list

 
                                   TREND    PRICE   GROUP AND END MARKET  
LB     L Brands                     301      85.37  Apparel          US/Can
ACT    Actavis plc                  262     285.02  Drugs              intl
EPD    Enterprise Products          258 X    34.92  Oil & Gas       US/intl
MCD    McDonald's Corp              243      90.67  Restaurants     US/intl
AXP    American Express             233      83.30  Credit Servs    US/intl
ROST   Ross Stores                  224      95.23  Apparel              US
BIIB   Biogen Idec                  223     362.44  Biotechnology   US/intl
PRGO   Perrigo Co                   223     157.53  Drugs              intl
NRF    NorthStar Realty Finance     220      18.93  Real Estate          US
VFC    VF Corp                      219      71.49  Apparel           US/EU
CCI    Crown Castle                 218      88.05  Util, Telecom    US/Aus
CI     Cigna Corp                   217     109.41  HC Plans        US/intl
REGN   Regeneron Pharmaceutical     217     423.77  Biotechnology   US/intl
CERN   Cerner Corp                  216      68.12  Info Servs         intl
EL     Estee Lauder                 211      72.86  Personal Prods     intl
UNP    Union Pacific                21O     121.33  Railroads            US
TJX    TJX Companies                208      68.14  Retail,Variety  US/intl
CCE    Coca-Cola Enterprises        208      43.30  Beverage, Soft       EU
UNH    UnitedHealth Group           201     111.61  HC Plans             US
ABC    AmerisourceBergen Corp       199      95.85  Drugs           US/intl

Portfolio

I chose LB, the top of the list, for the purchase:

             GROUP AND END MARKET     QTY       START        END OF MONTH  
AER         Rental Servs     US/Rus   700  11/20/14 30,276  01/31/15 27,671
AWH         Insurance            US   600  03/27/14 20,356  01/31/15 23,202
CCI         Util, Telecom    US/Aus   500  12/15/14 37,778  01/31/15 43,255
GILD        Biotechnology      intl   300  04/25/14 22,206  01/31/15 31,449
GMK         Packaged Goods  US/intl   500  05/27/14 20,416  01/31/15 21,445
GMK         Packaged Goods  US/intl   700  09/26/14 29,505  01/31/15 30,023
HII         Aerosp & Def         US   300  10/27/14 29,408  01/31/15 34,980
LB          Apparel          US/Can   500  01/27/15 42,723  01/31/15 42,315
MPAA        Auto Parts       US/Can   700  02/27/14 17,135  01/31/15 18,284
MPAA        Auto Parts       US/Can  1000  08/27/14 30,055  01/31/15 26,120
MU          Semiconductors     intl  1000  09/27/13 17,935  01/31/15 29,265
MWE         Oil & Gas            US   300  12/15/11 16,044  01/31/15 17,679

Capital gains

  APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC    JAN    FEB
-6951  -8385  10368 -10014  18864 -19787   5511   9244 -12437  -6291       

Comprehensive Strategy, hedges

All hedges were closed on 2014 October 27.

Real Estate Fund Strategy

Portfolio

I sold the options that were nearing expiration:

                  DESCRIPTION         QTY       START             END      
IYR15C64       US Real Estate ETF       3  11/27/12  1,825  01/02/15  4,059
IYR15C64       US Real Estate ETF       3  12/14/12  1,490  01/02/15  4,059
IYR15C69       US Real Estate ETF       3  01/25/13  1,225  01/02/15  2,552
IYR15C68       US Real Estate ETF       3  02/27/13  1,369  01/02/15  2,851
IYR15C70       US Real Estate ETF       3  03/27/13  1,180  01/02/15  2,120
IYR15C73       US Real Estate ETF       3  04/26/13  1,195  01/02/15  1,356
IYR15C73       US Real Estate ETF       3  05/24/13  1,264  01/02/15  1,356
IYR15C67       US Real Estate ETF       3  06/27/13  1,465  01/02/15  3,158
IYR15C68       US Real Estate ETF       3  07/26/13  1,450  01/02/15  2,851
IYR15C63       US Real Estate ETF       3  08/27/13  1,462  01/02/15  4,325
IYR15C65       US Real Estate ETF       3  09/27/13  1,336  01/02/15  3,746
IYR15C68       US Real Estate ETF       3  10/25/13  1,330  01/02/15  2,851

I reinvested the $35,284 proceeds from the sales:

                  DESCRIPTION         QTY       START             END      
IYR16C65       US Real Estate ETF       3  11/20/13  1,495                 
IYR16C63       US Real Estate ETF       3  12/13/13  1,450                 
IYR16C65       US Real Estate ETF       3  01/27/14  1,294                 
IYR16C69       US Real Estate ETF       3  02/27/14  1,270                 
IYR16C67       US Real Estate ETF       3  03/27/14  1,288                 
IYR16C70       US Real Estate ETF       3  04/25/14  1,180                 
IYR16C72       US Real Estate ETF       3  05/27/14  1,060                 
IYR16C72       US Real Estate ETF       5  06/27/14  1,882                 
IYR16C73       US Real Estate ETF       5  07/25/14  1,912                 
IYR16C74       US Real Estate ETF       5  08/27/14  1,897                 
IYR16C70       US Real Estate ETF       5  09/26/14  1,887                 
IYR16C74       US Real Estate ETF       5  10/27/14  1,902                 
IYR17C75       US Real Estate ETF       5  11/20/14  2,417                 
IYR17C76       US Real Estate ETF       5  12/15/14  3,162                 
IYR17C83       US Real Estate ETF      50  01/27/15 31,697                 

Capital gains

  APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC    JAN    FEB
 3215   3885   1785   2935   7015 -20148  25019  11859   9253  22372       

Easy Strategy

Portfolio

                  DESCRIPTION         QTY       START             END      
SPY16C200      S&P 500 Index ETF       31  10/27/14 33,853                 
SPY17C210      S&P 500 Index ETF        2  11/20/14  3,248                 
SPY17C200      S&P 500 Index ETF        2  12/15/14  3,858                 
SPY17C205      S&P 500 Index ETF        3  01/27/15  5,290                 

Capital gains

  APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC    JAN    FEB
  -89                                      8617   9215   1698 -16014       

Irregular Strategy

Portfolio

The Irregular Strategy has been discontinued due to a dearth of candidates. There will be no more purchases.

                  ASSET CLASS         QTY       START        END OF MONTH  
HYG16C92              Bonds           100  08/07/14 16,386  01/31/15  8,600
IEF16C105             Bonds           100  08/07/14 15,461  01/31/15 52,000

Capital gains

  APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC    JAN    FEB
                             4653 -15500  12500  -1500   1300  27300