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2014 October Update


The portfolios and capital gains summaries are current to the end of the month. There was hedging activity as well as investment activity this month.


I was careless this month. CPA and HCLP should have been sold on the 2nd but were instead sold on the 3rd and the 6th. The late sale of HCLP was costly and led to a miscalculation for the number of hedges required, so I purchased ZU11P36: another costly mistake. Also, somehow a stock under $5 appeared in the Comprehensive Strategy hedge selection list.

Comprehensive Strategy, stocks

Selection list

The list was generated before the October 27 market opening. Price histories, adjusted for splits and dividends, were downloaded from Yahoo:

            Stock                   Trend   Price    Group and End Market  
----------------------------------  -----  -------  -----------------------
FNHC   Federated National           267      32.48  Insurance            US
TLF    Tandy Leather                206       9.44  Apparel         US/intl
MPAA   Motorcar Parts               203 X    25.62  Auto Parts       US/Can
GILD   Gilead Sciences              194     110.71  Biotechnology      intl
MU     Micron Technology            190      31.06  Semiconductors     intl
FUJHY  Fuji Heavy Ind               184      62.09  Conglomerate   Jpn/intl
FOE    Ferro Corp                   180      12.90  Chemicals       US/intl
GMK    Gruma SAB de CV              173      44.32  Packaged Goods  US/intl
AER    AerCap Holdings              168 X    40.74  Rental Servs     US/Rus
LUV    Southwest Airlines           159      33.87  Airlines             US
TSM    Taiwan Semiconductor         158      21.18  Semiconductors     intl
BZLFY  Bunzl plc                    157      26.56  Packaging          intl
HII    Huntington Ingalls           157      97.65  Aerosp & Def         US
URI    United Rentals               147     107.96  Rental Servs     US/Can
RDN    Radian Group                 142      15.33  Insurance            US
GPK    Graphic Packaging            141      11.40  Packaging          intl
FBRC   FBR & Co                     140 X    24.53  Asset Mgmt           US
THO    Thor Ind                     138 X    51.16  Recreation       US/Can
ALK    Alaska Air                   138      50.20  Airlines             US
OB     OneBeacon Insurance          137      16.58  Insurance            US

Portfolio

I sold CPA, HCLP, and KS because they developed downtrends.

I chose HII for the purchase. Every stock above HII was disqualified because it is a conglomerate, was already a Comprehensive Strategy investment, or was in the same group and end market as a Comprehensive Strategy investment.

Stock        Group and End Market     Qty       Start             End      
----------  -----------------------  ----  ---------------  ---------------
CPA         Airlines            LAm   150  08/27/13 19,904  10/03/14 16,442
HCLP        Basic Matls          US   500  06/27/14 31,412  10/06/14 22,700
KS          Paper           US/intl  1000  07/25/14 32,772  10/31/14 30,200

Stock        Group and End Market     Qty       Start        End of Month  
----------  -----------------------  ----  ---------------  ---------------
AWH         Insurance            US   600  03/27/14 20,356  10/31/14 22,800
GILD        Biotechnology      intl   300  04/25/14 22,206  10/31/14 33,600
GMK         Packaged Goods  US/intl   500  05/27/14 20,416  10/31/14 21,990
GMK         Packaged Goods  US/intl   700  09/26/14 29,505  10/31/14 30,786
HII         Aerosp & Def         US   300  10/27/14 29,408  10/31/14 31,746
MPAA        Auto Parts       US/Can   700  02/27/14 17,135  10/31/14 20,328
MPAA        Auto Parts       US/Can  1000  08/27/14 30,055  10/31/14 29,040
MU          Semiconductors     intl  1000  09/27/13 17,935  10/31/14 33,090
MWE         Oil & Gas            US   300  12/15/11 16,044  10/31/14 21,015

Capital gains

 Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct   Stock
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
                      1182    962    312  -1206    588    -90    696    AWH
-5015  -3607                                                           BBSI
       -3161                                                           BCOR
-1965   7569                                                           BITA
        7013  -3120  -1889                                             BITA
 2265   3840  -6255  -4661                                             CAMP
-1554   -106  -2040                                                     CHL
-4411    714   1459  -1486   1148    -54   1394  -4333  -2353    348    CPA
 -893                                                                  DXPE
-4790   1430  -1708   4570 -10910     55                               DXPE
 -868    590   -320   -900    860  -1180  -2370    990     17         EADSY
                             2167    510   2592   4803   -333   1665   GILD
                              559   2950  -1985    890  -1425    585    GMK
                                                          462    819    GMK
                                     183  -1010   3990  -8795  -3080   HCLP
                                                                2338    HII
 6275     71  -3316  -3122                                             JAZZ
                                          -3032   1000  -2770   2230     KS
-6565   -596                                                            LAD
               1464    609  -2534    371  -1463   5642  -2177   1281   MPAA
                                                   265  -3110   1830   MPAA
 1290   1150   -530   2460   2470   4360  -2400   2050   1660  -1170     MU
 1218  -1902    441   -594   -417   2889   -534   2979   -873  -2031    MWE
-5655   -547                                                            OCN
 1120   1820   -160  -3120  -2680    -28                               PGTI
-3143  -2580                                                           SLCA
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
-22691 11697 -14085  -6951  -8385  10368 -10014  18864 -19787   5511  Total

Comprehensive Strategy, call options

Selection list

The list was generated before the October 27 market opening. Price histories, adjusted for splits and dividends, were downloaded from Yahoo:

            Stock                   Merit   Price    Group and End Market  
----------------------------------  -----  -------  -----------------------
PII    Polaris Industries           467     146.18  Recreation      US/intl
HD     Home Depot, The              427      94.99  Home Furnish         US
ABC    AmerisourceBergen Corp       400      78.28  Drugs            US/Can
AZO    AutoZone Inc                 383     536.05  Auto Parts           US
ACT    Activis plc                  375     240.33  Drugs              intl
MCK    McKesson Corp                374     200.83  Drugs           US/intl
CMCSA  Comcast Corp                 354      54.26  Util, Telecom      intl
DFS    Discover Financial           340      62.34  Credit Servs         US
CI     Cigna Corp                   334      92.83  HC Plans        US/intl
LYB    LyondellBasell Ind           292 X    92.39  Chemicals          intl
BIIB   Biogen Idec                  292     321.67  Biotechnology   US/intl
STZ    Constellation Brands         273      88.28  Beverage, Hard  US/intl
TSM    Taiwan Semiconductor         263      21.18  Semiconductors     intl
GCI    Gannett Co                   252      31.43  Publishing      US/intl
ASML   ASML Holding                 229      95.06  Semiconductors     intl
GILD   Gilead Sciences              227     110.71  Biotechnology      intl
LUV    Southwest Airlines           213      33.87  Airlines             US
MU     Micron Technology            201      31.06  Semiconductors     intl
PPC    Pilgrim's Pride              190 X    26.68  Meat Prods      US/intl
URI    United Rentals               174     107.96  Rental Servs     US/Can

Portfolio

I sold CAR15C35 because CAR developed a downtrend.

I chose GCI for the purchase. Every stock above GCI was disqualified because it was already a Comprehensive Strategy investment or was in the same group and end market as a Comprehensive Strategy investment.

Option       Group and End Market     Qty       Start             End      
----------  -----------------------  ----  ---------------  ---------------
CAR15C35    Rental Servs       intl    7   05/24/13  3,793  10/31/14 14,896

Option       Group and End Market     Qty       Start        End of Month  
----------  -----------------------  ----  ---------------  ---------------
ACT15C95    Drugs              intl    2   03/27/13  1,910  10/31/14 29,200
CI15C60     HC Plans        US/intl    3   01/25/13  2,317  10/31/14 11,700
CMCSK15C37  Util, Telecom      intl    5   12/14/12  2,047  10/31/14  8,700
DFS16C60    Credit Services      US    3   03/27/14  1,918  10/31/14  2,388
GCI16C32    Publishing      US/intl   10   10/27/14  3,056  10/31/14  3,000
HD15C77.5   Home Furnish         US    3   09/27/13  2,089  10/31/14  6,132
HD16C92.5   Home Furnish         US    3   08/27/14  1,984  10/31/14  3,270
LUV16C35    Airlines             US   10   09/26/14  3,826  10/31/14  4,500
LYB15C70    Chemicals          intl    3   07/26/13  2,200  10/31/14  6,180
PII15C87.5  Recreation      US/intl    2   02/27/13  2,750  10/31/14 12,240
PII16C130   Recreation      US/intl    2   06/27/14  3,426  10/31/14  5,640
PKG16C72.5  Packaging        NAm/EU    3   02/27/14  2,452  10/31/14  1,860
PPC16C22.5  Meat Prods      US/intl   10   04/25/14  4,756  10/31/14  8,300
ROST15C65   Apparel              US    3   06/27/13  2,488  10/31/14  4,620
STZ15C65    Beverage, Hard  US/intl    3   10/25/13  2,284  10/31/14  7,740
UNP16C87.5  Railroads            US    2   01/27/14  1,639  10/31/14  5,990
UNP16C105   Railroads            US    3   07/25/14  2,335  10/31/14  4,800

Capital gains

 Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct  Option
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
    0      0      0   8128   1900   2040  -1460   2060   3520   -540    ACT
  -89                                                                   AZO
 1400   1589   2821   2660   2450   1540  -1750   8260  -9170    476    CAR
 1725  -2712    888   -720   2835    735    -45    735   -765   2145     CI
    0      0      0   3850    450    750    750    -50    -50    100  CMCSK
  608                                                                   DFS
                      -238    261    348    -36     57    321   -243    DFS
 -340                                                                   DRI
  -10      0      0  -1149     90   1200    750     71                  FDO
                                                                 -56    GCI
-2302                                                                   GME
-1435      0   3135  -1300  -3050     75  -1475  -1062                 GNRC
-1155    630   -540    -45    -30    135    -60   3060   -240   1617     HD
                                                   251    -90   1125     HD
                                                          -26    700    LUV
    0   1623   1143    540   1920   -360   2970   1422   -702  -5910    LYB
-1482     36    435   -351   -915    -23                               PETM
    0      0      0   5660   -540   -260   3780   -340    640   -280    PII
                                     -10   2484   -200    100   -160    PII
                368  -1110    -90    150   -390   -270     30    720    PKG
                             1544   1400    900   1200    300  -1800    PPC
    0      0      0  -1404   -180   -477   -363   2220      0   1440   ROST
 1278    942    300   -750   1020   1200   -900    570   -180   1080    STZ
  620                                                                   UNP
         311    689   -149    480    300   -190    900    630   1380    UNP
                                           -460    753    642   1530    UNP
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
-1182   2419   9239  13622   8145   8743   4505  19637  -5040   3324  Total

Comprehensive Strategy, hedges

Selection list

The list was generated before the October 2 market opening. Price histories, adjusted for splits and dividends, were downloaded from Yahoo:

            Stock                   Trend   Price    Group and End Market  
----------------------------------  -----  -------  -----------------------
EHTH   eHealth Inc                  -112     24.19  HC Plans             US
ADEP   Adept Technology             -107      7.94  Machinery          intl
CLF    Cliffs Natural Resources     -105      9.77  Basic Matls        intl
ZU     zulily Inc                    -87     36.50  Retail,Variety   NAm/UK
SINA   SINA Corp                     -82     40.19  Internet Servs      CHN
SQI    SciQuest Inc                  -79     15.00  Software           intl
AGI    Alamos Gold                   -76      7.83  Precious Metal     intl
UTEK   Ultratech Inc                 -70     22.25  Semiconductors     intl
NTLS   NTELOS Holdings               -69     10.29  Util, Telecom        US
KBR    KBR Inc                       -67     18.42  Business Servs     intl
STAA   STAAR Surgical                -66     10.03  Medical Sups       intl
CVT    Cvent Inc                     -63     24.62  Software            NAm
HSTM   Healthstream Inc              -63     23.38  Info Servs           US
EGHT   8x8 Inc                       -62      6.42  Util, Telecom        US
BSFT   BroadSoft Inc                 -62     20.96  Software           intl
WAGE   WageWorks Inc                 -58     44.65  Business Servs       US
IMMR   Immersion Corp                -57      8.16  Software           intl
AEIS   Advanced Energy               -55     18.77  Electron Eqpt      intl
LPX    Louisiana-Pacific Corp        -54     13.35  Building Matls     intl
CACB   Cascade Bancorp               -54      4.87  Banks                US

Portfolio

The number of hedges required was 1.5 for the purchases of GMK and LUV16C35 on September 26 minus 2 for the sale of CPA on October 3 and the sale of HCLP on October 6. I falsely concluded the number of hedges required was 0.5 instead of -0.5 because I failed to include the sale of HCLP.

I chose ZU, which is in the same group as LITB but has a different end market, for the purchase. EHTH, ADEP, and CLF were bypassed because they were already hedges.

I placed market sell orders for all puts when the January Barometer defensive period ended. There was no buyer for DHX, so it was worthless:

Option       Group and End Market     Qty       Start             End      
----------  -----------------------  ----  ---------------  ---------------
ADEP11P7.5  Machinery          intl   60   09/02/14  5,611  10/27/14  3,245
AEO11P10    Apparel         US/intl   30   04/10/14  3,632  10/27/14    141
ARCO11P10   Restaurants         LAm   40   04/10/14  5,239  10/27/14 15,924
BDE11P10    Recreation      US/intl    7   04/10/14    993  10/27/14  1,520
CLF01P15    Basic Matls        intl   40   07/02/14  9,027  10/27/14 24,360
DDD11P50    Computers       US/intl    6   04/10/14  4,651  10/27/14  7,811
DHX11P5     Business Servs  US/intl   60   04/10/14  3,055  10/27/14      0
EC11P35     Oil & Gas           Col   10   04/10/14  2,616  10/27/14  4,984
EHTH11P17.5 Insurance            US   30   08/01/14  5,551  10/27/14    141
KOF11P105   Beverage, Soft      LAm    4   04/10/14  3,655  10/27/14  1,109
LITB12P5    Retail,Variety      CHN   60   05/02/14  7,855  10/27/14  1,085
MDCO01P25   Drugs              intl   14   04/10/14  6,221  10/27/14  4,909
NUAN01P15   Software           intl   20   04/10/14  2,744  10/27/14  2,476
NXST11P40   Entertainment        US   10   04/10/14  6,056  10/27/14  1,114
RAX01P32.5  Info Servs         intl   14   04/10/14  7,201  10/27/14  1,647
RNF01P15    Agriculture     US/intl   20   05/02/14  3,724  10/27/14  9,132
SINA12P50   Internet Servs      CHN   10   07/02/14  5,349  10/27/14 10,884
SINA01P55   Internet Servs      CHN    6   04/10/14  5,353  10/27/14  9,461
UTEK11P25   Semiconductors     intl   14   04/10/14  4,569  10/27/14  7,261
VIV11P20    Util, Telecom       BRA   20   04/10/14  2,840  10/27/14  3,976
WTW01P20    Personal Servs     intl   20   04/10/14  9,024  10/27/14  1,656
XXIA11P12.5 Internet Servs  US/intl   30   04/10/14  5,012  10/27/14 11,546
ZU11P36     Retail,Variety   NAm/UK   14   10/02/14  5,017  10/27/14  3,565

Capital gains

 Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct  Option
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
                                                        -2311    -55   ADEP
                      -182    450   -960    510  -3060   -240     -9    AEO
                      1361      0  -3600   1000   8400   3600    -76   ARCO
                      -538     35    -70     35    840      0    225    BDE
                     -1442   -600   -272                                BWP
                                          -3027   1560  13640   3160    CLF
                      1091  -1272  -2160   1362  -1242   1044   4337    DDD
                     -1555      0   -300   -600      0      0   -600    DHX
                      -616   -300   -300    350   -300   1450   2084     EC
                                                 -3751  -1050   -609   EHTH
                      -335  -2040    320    280   -160    720  -1331    KOF
                            -1855  -2400    300  -1800      0  -1015   LITB
                      -761  -2590   -350   1610  -1540   1190   1129   MDCO
                       -44   -420  -1280      0    200    700    576   NUAN
                      -156  -1900  -2500     50   -150    600   -886   NXST
                       354  -3100   -296                                PPO
                      2179  -5880   1120   1540  -2660    728  -2581    RAX
                             -624  -1200      0    900   2700   3632    RNF
                                           1001    150   2300   2084   SINA
                      2147    390  -2070    150    360   1800   1331   SINA
                     -1349    490   2450  -2170  -1400   1190   3481   UTEK
                       -40    300   -500   -400   -100   -500   2376    VIV
                     -1224  -1600   -400  -1500  -1800   -540   -304    WTW
                      -212    600    300   1050   2250   1200   1346   XXIA
                                                               -1452     ZU
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
                     -1322 -19916 -14468   1541  -3303  28221  16843  Total

Real Estate Fund Strategy

Portfolio

Option           Description          Qty       Start             End      
----------  -----------------------  ----  ---------------  ---------------
IYR15C64       US Real Estate ETF      3   11/27/12  1,825                 
IYR15C64       US Real Estate ETF      3   12/14/12  1,490                 
IYR15C69       US Real Estate ETF      3   01/25/13  1,225                 
IYR15C68       US Real Estate ETF      3   02/27/13  1,369                 
IYR15C70       US Real Estate ETF      3   03/27/13  1,180                 
IYR15C73       US Real Estate ETF      3   04/26/13  1,195                 
IYR15C73       US Real Estate ETF      3   05/24/13  1,264                 
IYR15C67       US Real Estate ETF      3   06/27/13  1,465                 
IYR15C68       US Real Estate ETF      3   07/26/13  1,450                 
IYR15C63       US Real Estate ETF      3   08/27/13  1,462                 
IYR15C65       US Real Estate ETF      3   09/27/13  1,336                 
IYR15C68       US Real Estate ETF      3   10/25/13  1,330                 
IYR16C65       US Real Estate ETF      3   11/20/13  1,495                 
IYR16C63       US Real Estate ETF      3   12/13/13  1,450                 
IYR16C65       US Real Estate ETF      3   01/27/14  1,294                 
IYR16C69       US Real Estate ETF      3   02/27/14  1,270                 
IYR16C67       US Real Estate ETF      3   03/27/14  1,288                 
IYR16C70       US Real Estate ETF      3   04/25/14  1,180                 
IYR16C72       US Real Estate ETF      3   05/27/14  1,060                 
IYR16C72       US Real Estate ETF      5   06/27/14  1,882                 
IYR16C73       US Real Estate ETF      5   07/25/14  1,912                 
IYR16C74       US Real Estate ETF      5   08/27/14  1,897                 
IYR16C70       US Real Estate ETF      5   09/26/14  1,887                 
IYR16C74       US Real Estate ETF      5   10/27/14  1,902                 

Capital gains

 Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct  Option
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
  780   4487   -778   3215   3885   1785   2935   7015 -20148  25019    IYR

Easy Strategy

Portfolio

When the January Barometer defensive period ended I reinvested the $34,116 proceeds from closing out this portfolio at the start of the defensive period in April:

Option           Description          Qty       Start             End      
----------  -----------------------  ----  ---------------  ---------------
SPY16C200      S&P 500 Index ETF       31  10/27/14 33,853                 

Capital gains

 Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct  Option
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
-5285   5971    674    -89      0      0      0      0      0   8617    SPY

Irregular Strategy

Selection list

The list was generated before the October 27 market opening. Price histories, adjusted for splits and dividends, were downloaded from Yahoo:

                 Fund                         Merit   Price    Asset Class
-------------------------------------------  ------  -------  ------------
JNK   SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond          1457      40.44          Bond
HYG   iShares iBoxx High Yield Bond          1202      92.79          Bond
IEF   iShares 7-10 Yr Treasury bond           680     105.58          Bond
FXA   CurrencyShares Australian Dollar        411 X    88.06      Currency
FXE   CurrencyShares Euro                     228 X   124.81      Currency
TLT   iShares 20+ Yr Treasury bond            217     119.72          Bond
YCS   ProShares UltraShort Yen                138      73.40      Currency
ZSL   ProShares UltraShort Silver              47     104.86      Precious
SCO   ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude     37      37.33     Commodity

Portfolio

There was no purchase. HYG and IEF had been previously purchased, JNK is too similar to HYG, and the others did not have exceptionally high merits.

Option            Asset Class         Qty       Start        End of Month  
----------  -----------------------  ----  ---------------  ---------------
HYG16C92              Bonds           100  08/07/14 16,386  10/31/14 13,000
IEF16C105             Bonds           100  08/07/14 15,461  10/31/14 20,500

Capital gains

 Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct  Option
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
                                                  4114 -11000   3500    HYG
                                                   539  -4500   9000    IEF
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
                                                  4653 -15500  12500  Total