Home  choices  barometer  timing  tests  signals  realty  easy  buy  sell  lists

2014 August Update


The portfolios and capital gains summaries are current to the end of the month. There was hedging activity as well as investment activity this month.


Comprehensive Strategy, stocks

Selection list

The list was generated before the August 27 market opening. Price histories, adjusted for splits and dividends, were downloaded from Yahoo:

            Stock                   Trend   Price    Group and End Market  
----------------------------------  -----  -------  -----------------------
DISCA  Discovery Communications     218      44.09  Util, Telecom      intl
TLF    Tandy Leather Factory        205       9.32  Apparel         US/intl
UIHC   United Insurance             201      16.74  Insurance            US
MPAA   Motorcar Parts               197      27.84  Auto Parts       US/Can
GILD   Gilead Sciences              191     106.27  Biotechnology      intl
MU     Micron Technology            190      32.88  Semiconductors     intl
CAR    Avis Budget Group            190      68.80  Rental Servs       intl
FOE    Ferro Corp                   179      13.51  Chemicals       US/intl
FANG   Diamondback Energy           174      83.88  Oil & Gas            US
FUJHY  Fuji Heavy Ind               174      57.44  Conglomerate   Jpn/intl
GMK    Gruma SAB de CV              173      44.73  Packaged Goods  US/intl
STZ    Constellation Brands         170      87.23  Beverage, Hard  US/intl
BAM    Brookfield Asset Mgmt        168      48.01  Real Estate        intl
ANIK   Anika Therapeutics           168 X    41.78  Biotechnology   US/intl
HCLP   Hi-Crush Partners            166      63.02  Basic Matls          US
GY     GenCorp Inc                  163      18.50  Aerosp & Def         US
DAL    Delta Air Lines              161      39.90  Airlines           intl
CSCD   Cascade Microtech            159 X    10.79  Semiconductors     intl
TSM    Taiwan Semiconductor         158      20.80  Semiconductors     intl
KS     KapStone Paper               158      30.28  Paper           US/intl

Portfolio

BAM was bypassed because it is in the Real Estate group. FUJHY was bypassed because it is in the Conglomerate group. All others were bypassed because I already own them or they are in the same groups and end markets as stocks I already own. Consequently, I added to my position in MPAA:

Stock        Group and End Market     Qty       Start        End of Month  
----------  -----------------------  ----  ---------------  ---------------
AWH         Insurance            US   600  03/27/14 20,356  08/31/14 22,194
CPA         Airlines       Latin Am   150  08/27/13 19,904  08/31/14 18,447
EADSY       Aerosp & Def       intl  1000  12/13/13 18,548  08/31/14 15,350
GILD        Biotechnology      intl   300  04/25/14 22,206  08/31/14 32,268
GMK         Packaged Goods  US/intl   500  05/27/14 20,416  08/31/14 22,830
HCLP        Basic Matls          US   500  06/27/14 31,412  08/31/14 34,575
KS          Paper           US/intl  1000  07/25/14 32,772  08/31/14 30,740
MPAA        Auto Parts       US/Can   700  02/27/14 17,135  08/31/14 21,224
MPAA        Auto Parts       US/Can  1000  08/27/14 30,055  08/31/14 30,320
MU          Semiconductors     intl  1000  09/27/13 17,935  08/31/14 32,600
MWE         Oil & Gas            US   300  12/15/11 16,044  08/31/14 23,919

Capital gains

 Nov    Dec    Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug   Stock
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
                                    1182    962    312  -1206    588    AWH
 4174 -16015                                                           AFSI
  438   2877  -5015  -3607                                             BBSI
                     -3161                                             BCOR
10485    690  -1965   7569                                             BITA
                      7013  -3120  -1889                               BITA
                                                                       CAMP
 2130   4545   2265   3840  -6255  -4661                               CAMP
  777   -682  -1554   -106  -2040                                       CHL
  282   1303  -4411    714   1459  -1486   1148    -54   1394  -4333    CPA
 3040   8610   -893                                                    DXPE
              -4790   1430  -1708   4570 -10910     55                 DXPE
               -868    590   -320   -900    860  -1180  -2370    990  EADSY
                                           2167    510   2592   4803   GILD
                                            559   2950  -1985    890    GMK
                                                   183  -1010   3990   HCLP
13090    629                                                           JAZZ
        2410   6275     71  -3316  -3122                               JAZZ
                                                        -3032   1000     KS
 1615   1670  -6565   -596                                              LAD
 -264                                                                  MGAM
-2850                                                                  MGAM
                             1464    609  -2534    371  -1463   5642   MPAA
                                                                 265   MPAA
 3420    650   1290   1150   -530   2460   2470   4360  -2400   2050     MU
-1563   -882   1218  -1902    441   -594   -417   2889   -534   2979    MWE
  215   -605  -5655   -547                                              OCN
 -900    240   1120   1820   -160  -3120  -2680    -28                 PGTI
        1381  -3143  -2580                                             SLCA
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
34090   6821 -22691  11697 -14085  -6951  -8385  10368 -10014  18864  Total

Comprehensive Strategy, call options

Selection list

The list was generated before the August 27 market opening. Price histories, adjusted for splits and dividends, were downloaded from Yahoo:

            Stock                   Merit   Price    Group and End Market  
----------------------------------  -----  -------  -----------------------
PII    Polaris Industries           482     147.92  Recreation      US/intl
UNP    Union Pacific                475     105.56  Railroads            US
HD     Home Depot, The              456      91.63  Home Furnish         US
LYB    LyondellBasell Ind           384     112.60  Chemicals          intl
CMCSK  Comcast Corp                 381      54.34  Util, Telecom      intl
CMCSA  Comcast Corp                 374      54.56  Util, Telecom      intl
AZO    AutoZone Inc                 362     535.95  Auto Parts           US
MCK    McKesson Corp                333     193.77  Drugs           US/intl
CI     Cigna Corp                   317      93.76  HC Plans        US/intl
ACT    Activis plc                  311     227.72  Drugs              intl
DFS    Discover Financial           308      62.60  Credit Servs         US
BIIB   Biogen Idec                  270     342.99  Biotechnology   US/intl
STZ    Constellation Brands         252      87.23  Beverage, Hard  US/intl
HCA    HCA Holdings                 237      69.27  HC Providers     US/Eng
GILD   Gilead Sciences              226     106.27  Biotechnology      intl
CAR    Avis Budget Group            223      68.80  Rental Servs       intl
PPC    Pilgrim's Pride              212      29.78  Meat Prods       US/Mex
MU     Micron Technology            208      32.88  Semiconductors     intl
DAL    Delta Air Lines              186      39.90  Airlines           intl
FANG   Diamondback Energy           177      83.88  Oil & Gas            US

Portfolio

I sold GNRC because it developed a downtrend. I sold FDO because it is being bought out.

All were disqualified because I already own them or they are in the same groups and end markets as stocks I already own. Consequently I added to my position in HD, bypassing UNP and PII because the market value of their underlying stocks already exceeds the tranche size.

Option       Group and End Market     Qty       Start             End      
----------  -----------------------  ----  ---------------  ---------------
FDO16C65    Retail,Variety       US    3   12/13/13  2,269  08/01/14  3,221
GNRC16C50   Machinery       US/intl    5   11/20/13  5,107  08/01/14  1,488


Option       Group and End Market     Qty       Start        End of Month  
----------  -----------------------  ----  ---------------  ---------------
ACT15C95    Drugs              intl    2   03/27/13  1,910  08/31/14 26,220
CAR15C35    Rental Servs       intl    7   05/24/13  3,793  08/31/14 23,590
CI15C60     HC Plans        US/intl    3   01/25/13  2,317  08/31/14 10,320
CMCSK15C37  Util, Telecom      intl    5   12/14/12  2,047  08/31/14  8,650
DFS16C60    Credit Services      US    3   03/27/14  1,918  08/31/14  2,310
HD15C77.5   Home Furnish         US    3   09/27/13  2,089  08/31/14  4,755
HD16C92.5   Home Furnish         US    3   08/27/14  1,984  08/31/14  2,235
LYB15C70    Chemicals          intl    3   07/26/13  2,200  08/31/14 12,792
PII15C87.5  Recreation      US/intl    2   02/27/13  2,750  08/31/14 11,880
PII16C130   Recreation      US/intl    2   06/27/14  3,426  08/31/14  5,700
PKG16C72.5  Packaging      N Am/Eur    3   02/27/14  2,452  08/31/14  1,100
PPC16C22.5  Meat Prods      US/intl   10   04/25/14  4,756  08/31/14  9,800
ROST15C65   Apparel              US    3   06/27/13  2,488  08/31/14  3,180
STZ15C65    Beverage, Hard  US/intl    3   10/25/13  2,284  08/31/14  6,840
UNP16C87.5  Railroads            US    2   01/27/14  1,639  08/31/14  3,980
UNP16C105   Railroads            US    3   07/25/14  2,335  08/31/14  2,628

Capital gains

 Nov    Dec    Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug  Option
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
    0   3372      0      0      0   8128   1900   2040  -1460   2060    ACT
 2384   1500    -89                                                     AZO
 2100      0   1400   1589   2821   2660   2450   1540  -1750   8260    CAR
 -207      0   1725  -2712    888   -720   2835    735    -45    735     CI
    0      0      0      0      0   3850    450    750    750    -50  CMCSK
  610     45    608                                                     DFS
                                    -238    261    348    -36     57    DFS
   60    -45   -340                                                     DRI
                -10      0      0  -1149     90   1200    750     71    FDO
-1615    -50  -2302                                                     GME
        1493  -1435      0   3135  -1300  -3050     75  -1475  -1062   GNRC
  399    171  -1155    630   -540    -45    -30    135    -60   3060     HD
                                                                 251     HD
 -270    534      0   1623   1143    540   1920   -360   2970   1422    LYB
  -57   -291  -1482     36    435   -351   -915    -23                 PETM
    0      0      0      0      0   5660   -540   -260   3780   -340    PII
                                                   -10   2484   -200    PII
                              368  -1110    -90    150   -390   -270    PKG
                                           1544   1400    900   1200    PPC
 1131  -1188      0      0      0  -1404   -180   -477   -363   2220   ROST
  806     90   1278    942    300   -750   1020   1200   -900    570    STZ
 1928     50    620                                                     UNP
                       311    689   -149    480    300   -190    900    UNP
                                                         -460    753    UNP
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
 7269   5681  -1182   2419   9239  13622   8145   8743   4505  19637  Total

Comprehensive Strategy, hedges

Selection list

A list was generated before the August 1 market opening, but I lost it. It probably was similar to this:

            Stock                   Trend   Price    Group and End Market  
----------------------------------  -----  -------  -----------------------
EHTH   eHealth Inc                  -112     22.80  HC Plans             US
ZU     zulily Inc                    -87     36.61  Retail,Variety  N Am/UK
SQI    SciQuest Inc                  -79     15.01  Software           intl
ACXM   Acxiom Corp                   -78     17.78  Info Servs      US/intl
SINA   SINA Corp                     -75     49.13  Internet Servs    China
CLF    Cliffs Natural Resources      -71     16.77  Basic Matls        intl
AGI    Alamos Gold                   -71      9.76  Precious Metal     intl
UTEK   Ultratech Inc                 -70     24.56  Semiconductors     intl
EVEP   EV Energy                     -66     36.75  Oil & Gas            US
ATHN   athenahealth Inc              -65    131.03  Info Servs           US
EC     Ecopetrol SA                  -65     33.17  Oil & Gas      Colombia
HSTM   Healthstream Inc              -63     26.50  Info Servs           US
CALX   Calix Inc                     -63      9.43  Electron Eqpt   US/intl
BSFT   BroadSoft Inc                 -62     23.81  Software           intl
RDEN   Elizabeth Arden               -61     20.18  Personal Prods     intl
STAA   STAAR Surgical                -61     11.61  Medical Sups       intl
QLIK   Qlik Technologies             -59     26.93  Software           intl
WAGE   WageWorks Inc                 -58     44.26  Business Servs       US
NTLS   NTELOS Holdings               -57     12.41  Util, Telecom        US
EGHT   8x8 Inc                       -56      7.88  Util, Telecom        US

Portfolio

The number of hedges required was 1.5 for the purchases of KS and UNP16C105 on July 25 minus 1 for the sales of GNRC16C50 and FDO16C65 on August 1. I purchased EHTH:

Option       Group and End Market     Qty       Start        End of Month  
----------  -----------------------  ----  ---------------  ---------------
AEO11P10    Apparel         US/intl   30   04/10/14  3,632  08/31/14    390
ARCO11P10   Restaurants    Latin Am   40   04/10/14  5,239  08/31/14 12,400
BDE11P10    Recreation      US/intl    7   04/10/14    993  08/31/14  1,295
CLF01P15    Basic Matls        intl   40   07/02/14  9,027  08/31/14  7,560
DDD11P50    Computers       US/intl    6   04/10/14  4,651  08/31/14  2,430
DHX11P5     Business Servs  US/intl   60   04/10/14  3,055  08/31/14    600
EC11P35     Oil & Gas      Colombia   10   04/10/14  2,616  08/31/14  1,450
EHTH11P17.5 Insurance            US   30   08/01/14  5,551  08/31/14  1,800
KOF11P105   Beverage, Soft Latin Am    4   04/10/14  3,655  08/31/14  1,720
LITB12P5    Retail,Variety    China   60   05/02/14  7,855  08/31/14  2,100
MDCO01P25   Drugs              intl   14   04/10/14  6,221  08/31/14  2,590
NUAN01P15   Software           intl   20   04/10/14  2,744  08/31/14  1,200
NXST11P40   Entertainment        US   10   04/10/14  6,056  08/31/14  1,400
RAX01P32.5  Info Servs         intl   14   04/10/14  7,201  08/31/14  3,500
RNF01P15    Agriculture     US/intl   20   05/02/14  3,724  08/31/14  2,800
SINA12P50   Internet Servs    China   10   07/02/14  5,349  08/31/14  6,500
SINA01P55   Internet Servs    China    6   04/10/14  5,353  08/31/14  6,330
UTEK11P25   Semiconductors     intl   14   04/10/14  4,569  08/31/14  2,590
VIV11P20    Util, Telecom    Brazil   20   04/10/14  2,840  08/31/14  2,100
WTW01P20    Personal Servs     intl   20   04/10/14  9,024  08/31/14  2,500
XXIA11P12.5 Internet Servs  US/intl   30   04/10/14  5,012  08/31/14  9,000

Capital gains

 Nov    Dec    Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug  Option
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
                                    -182    450   -960    510  -3060    AEO
                                    1361      0  -3600   1000   8400   ARCO
                                    -538     35    -70     35    840    BDE
                                   -1442   -600   -272                  BWP
                                                        -3027   1560    CLF
                                    1091  -1272  -2160   1362  -1242    DDD
                                   -1555      0   -300   -600      0    DHX
                                    -616   -300   -300    350   -300     EC
                                                               -3751   EHTH
                                    -335  -2040    320    280   -160    KOF
                                          -1855  -2400    300  -1800   LITB
                                    -761  -2590   -350   1610  -1540   MDCO
                                     -44   -420  -1280      0    200   NUAN
                                    -156  -1900  -2500     50   -150   NXST
                                     354  -3100   -296                  PPO
                                    2179  -5880   1120   1540  -2660    RAX
                                           -624  -1200      0    900    RNF
                                                         1001    150   SINA
                                    2147    390  -2070    150    360   SINA
                                   -1349    490   2450  -2170  -1400   UTEK
                                     -40    300   -500   -400   -100    VIV
                                   -1224  -1600   -400  -1500  -1800    WTW
                                    -212    600    300   1050   2250   XXIA
 ----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
                                   -1322 -19916 -14468   1541  -3303  Total

Real Estate Fund Strategy

Portfolio

Option           Description          Qty       Start             End      
----------  -----------------------  ----  ---------------  ---------------
IYR15C64       US Real Estate ETF      3   11/27/12  1,825                 
IYR15C64       US Real Estate ETF      3   12/14/12  1,490                 
IYR15C69       US Real Estate ETF      3   01/25/13  1,225                 
IYR15C68       US Real Estate ETF      3   02/27/13  1,369                 
IYR15C70       US Real Estate ETF      3   03/27/13  1,180                 
IYR15C73       US Real Estate ETF      3   04/26/13  1,195                 
IYR15C73       US Real Estate ETF      3   05/24/13  1,264                 
IYR15C67       US Real Estate ETF      3   06/27/13  1,465                 
IYR15C68       US Real Estate ETF      3   07/26/13  1,450                 
IYR15C63       US Real Estate ETF      3   08/27/13  1,462                 
IYR15C65       US Real Estate ETF      3   09/27/13  1,336                 
IYR15C68       US Real Estate ETF      3   10/25/13  1,330                 
IYR16C65       US Real Estate ETF      3   11/20/13  1,495                 
IYR16C63       US Real Estate ETF      3   12/13/13  1,450                 
IYR16C65       US Real Estate ETF      3   01/27/14  1,294                 
IYR16C69       US Real Estate ETF      3   02/27/14  1,270                 
IYR16C67       US Real Estate ETF      3   03/27/14  1,288                 
IYR16C70       US Real Estate ETF      3   04/25/14  1,180                 
IYR16C72       US Real Estate ETF      3   05/27/14  1,060                 
IYR16C72       US Real Estate ETF      5   06/27/14  1,882                 
IYR16C73       US Real Estate ETF      5   07/25/14  1,912                 
IYR16C74       US Real Estate ETF      5   08/27/14  1,897                 

Capital gains

 Nov    Dec    Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug  Option
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
-7771  -1900    780   4487   -778   3215   3885   1785   2935   7015    IYR

Easy Strategy

Portfolio

This portfolio is empty.

Capital gains

 Nov    Dec    Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug  Option
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
 3446   2944  -5285   5971    674    -89      0      0      0      0    SPY

Irregular Strategy

Selection list

The list was generated before the August 27 market opening. Price histories, adjusted for splits and dividends, were downloaded from Yahoo:

                 Fund                         Merit   Price    Asset Class
--------------------------------------------  -----  -------  ------------
JNK   SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond            1604    41.42          Bond
HYG   iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate     1319    94.40          Bond
IEF   iShares 7-10 Year Treasury bond           819   104.46          Bond
FXA   CurrencyShares Australian Dollar          390    93.16      Currency
TLT   iShares 20+ Year Treasury bond            235   117.35          Bond
FXE   CurrencyShares Euro                       224   129.86      Currency
DBC   PowerShares DB Commodity Tracking         155    24.92     Commodity
YCS   ProShares UltraShort Yen                  135    68.32      Currency
UNG   United States Natural Gas                  58    21.64     Commodity
UCO   ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil        37    31.76     Commodity

Portfolio

There was no purchase. I had purchased HYG and IEF earlier in the month, JNK is too similar to HYG, and the others did not have exceptionally high merits.

Option            Asset Class         Qty       Start        End of Month  
----------  -----------------------  ----  ---------------  ---------------
IEF16C105             Bonds           100  08/07/14 15,461  08/31/14 16,000
HYG16C92              Bonds           100  08/07/14 16,386  08/31/14 20,500

Capital gains

 Nov    Dec    Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug  Option
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
                                                                 539    IEF
                                                                4114    HYG
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
                                                                4653  Total