Home  choices  barometer  timing  tests  signals  realty  easy  buy  sell  lists

2014 January Update


The selection lists were generated before the January 27 market opening. The portfolios and capital gains summaries are current to the end of the month.


The January Barometer was negative. I will start defensive action on April 10 and end it on October 27. All stocks and call options in the Comprehensive Stragegy portfolios will be hedged with put options. Everything in the Easy Strategy portfolio will be sold. The Real Estate portfolio will not be defended.

Comprehensive Strategy, stocks

Selection list

The Yahoo Java screener was used to find approximately 250 stocks with price at least $5 and the lowest PEG ratios. Price histories, adjusted for splits and dividends, were downloaded from Yahoo with YLoader 4.9.0.0. Current trends were calculated with BULKLOAD.BAS:

Stock                          Trend  Hardnose Group             End Market
-----------------------------  -----  --------------------  ---------------
WES   Western Gas              208    Oil & Gas                         USA
OCN   Ocwen Financial          196 X  Banks                        USA/intl
AN    AutoNation Inc           192    Autos & Trucks                    USA
RAD   Rite Aid                 184    Retail, Variety                   USA
AWH   Allied World Assurance   172    Insurance                    USA/intl
LAD   Lithia Motors            169 X  Autos & Trucks                    USA
GY    GenCorp Inc              156    Aerospace & Defense               USA
BCOR  Blucora Inc              149    Information Services         USA/intl
KS    KapStone Paper           142    Paper                        USA/intl
MITL  Mitel Networks           141    Electronic Equipment       NAmer/intl
GA    Giant Interactive        141    Software                        China
CPA   Copa Holdings            139 X  Airlines                    LatinAmer
FBHS  Fortune Brands           137    Home Furnishings             USA/intl
SLCA  US Silica                137 X  Basic Materials                   USA
LYG   Lloyds Banking           133    Banks                         UK/intl
SEMG  SemGroup Corp            130    Oil & Gas                         USA
MHK   Mohawk Ind               130    Building Materials         USA/Europe
PCCC  PC Connection            129    Retail, Specialty                 USA
MTH   Meritage Homes           129    Homebuilding                      USA
ABG   Asbury Automotive        128    Autos & Trucks                    USA

Portfolio

I sold half of DXPE to rebalance.

I chose BCOR for the monthly purchase-BCOR is in the same group as BITA, but has a different end market. OCN and LAD were disqualified because I already own them. WES, AN, RAD, AWH, and GY were disqualified because they are in the same groups and end markets as stocks I already own:

Stock      Hardnose Group        Qty        Start               End        
-----   --------------------   -----  -----------------   -----------------
DXPE    Industrial Equipment     250  09/27/12   11,901   01/03/14   27,907

Stock      Hardnose Group        Qty        Start            End of Month  
-----   --------------------   -----  -----------------   -----------------
BBSI    Business Services        350  11/27/12   11,018   01/31/14   27,444
BCOR    Information Services     700  01/27/14   17,978                    
BITA    Information Services    1500  07/26/13   18,445   01/31/14   45,975
CAMP    Electronic Equipment    1500  07/27/12   11,171   01/31/14   44,220
CHL     Utilities, Telecom       350  04/19/05    5,662   01/31/14   16,748
CPA     Airlines                 150  08/27/13   19,904   01/31/14   19,605
DXPE    Industrial Equipment     250  09/27/12   11,901   01/31/14   24,010
EADSY   Aerospace & Defense     1000  12/13/13   18,548   01/31/14   17,680
JAZZ    Biotechnology            250  01/27/12   12,005   01/31/14   37,915
LAD     Autos & Trucks           500  12/14/12   17,246   01/31/14   28,145
MU      Semiconductors          1000  09/27/13   17,935   01/31/14   23,040
MWE     Oil & Gas                300  12/15/11   16,044   01/31/14   21,057
OCN     Banks                    500  06/27/12    9,230   01/31/14   22,070
PGTI    Building Materials      2000  06/27/13   17,304   01/31/14   21,360
SLCA    Basic Materials          700  11/20/13   22,496   01/31/14   20,734

Capital gains

 Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct    Nov    Dec    Jan   Stock
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
-3289   1507   2937   6523  -6501   7910   -786   4174 -16015          AFSI
  196   2379                                                           BBSI
        1887  -2142   6317  -2097   1064   5586    438   2877  -5015   BBSI
                             2135   3600  12585  10485    690  -1965   BITA
  480   6120   4290   2250   3120   3660   1121                        CAMP
                                           8865   2130   4545   2265   CAMP
  738  -1204    -10    402    368    860  -1543    777   -682  -1554    CHL
                                     896   1631    282   1303  -4411    CPA
-2050  -4095                                                           CRAY
-3910  -3905   3765   1255   -565   5495   6465   3040   8610   -893   DXPE
                                                               -4790   DXPE
                                                                -868  EADSY
              -3723                                                    HIMX
                                          -3983                        IGLD
 1220   4810    380   3414   6066   2140   -615  13090    629          JAZZ
                                                         2410   6275   JAZZ
 1020   1285    610   5965    190   3670  -5055   1615   1670  -6565    LAD
 5685   1395    720  13380   6375  -7035  -3060   -264                 MGAM
                                                 -2850                 MGAM
                                           -255   3420    650   1290     MU
  735    792    303   1008  -1026   1632    615  -1563   -882   1218    MWE
-1340   6200  -1560    125                                              OCN
                      3200   1410   2665    230    215   -605  -5655    OCN
                      2696    360   -560   1100   -900    240   1120   PGTI
                                                         1381  -3143   SLCA
  294   -574  -2436                                                    VIPS
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
 -221  16597   3134  46535   9835  25997  22901  34090   6821 -22691  Total

Comprehensive Strategy, call options

Selection list

The Yahoo Java screener was used to find approximately 750 stocks with price at least $5 and the lowest PEG ratios. Price histories, adjusted for splits and dividends, were downloaded from Yahoo with YLoader 4.9.0.0. Current trends were calculated with BULKLOAD.BAS, and then merits were calculated as described on the #tests page:

Stock                          Merit  Hardnose Group             End Market
-----------------------------  -----  --------------------  ---------------
UNP   Union Pacific            314    Railroads                         USA
HD    The Home Depot           292    Home Furnishings                NAmer
AZO   AutoZone Inc             271    Auto Parts                 USA/Mexico
CMCSA Comcast Corp             268    Utilities, Telecom               intl
JAZZ  Jazz Pharmaceuticals     252    Biotechnology                USA/intl
MCK   McKesson Corp            237    Drugs                             USA
LYB   LyondellBasell Ind       226    Chemicals                        intl
CI    Cigna Corp               226    Healthcare Plans             USA/intl
ACT   Actavis plc              216    Drugs                 USA/Canada/intl
GNRC  Generac Holdings         195 X  Machinery                       NAmer
DFS   Discover Financial       193    Financial Services                USA
OCN   Ocwen Financial          177 X  Banks                        USA/intl
LL    Lumber Liquidators       170 X  Home Furnishings                NAmer
GILD  Gilead Sciences          142    Biotechnology                    intl
SFUN  SouFun Holdings          132 X  Information Services            China
RAD   Rite Aid                 128    Retail, Variety                   USA
MPEL  Melco Crown              113 X  Entertainment                   China
QIHU  Qihoo 360 Technology     106    Internet Services               China
YY    YY Inc                    94 X  Information Services            China
PPC   Pilgrim's Pride           76 X  Meat Products              USA/Mexico

Portfolio

I sold AZO14C380, DFS14C40, DRI14C52.5, and UNP14C120 to prevent them from being exercised on January 18. I sold GME15C55 because GME developed a downtrend.

I chose UNP, the top of the list, for the monthly purchase:

Option     Hardnose Group        Qty        Start               End        
-----   --------------------   -----  -----------------   -----------------
AZO14C380   Auto Parts             1  08/27/12    4,049   01/03/14    9,621
DFS14C40    Credit Services        5  07/31/12    1,862   01/03/14    7,508
DRI14C52.5  Restaurants            3  10/26/12    1,585   01/03/14      245
GME15C55    Electronic Supplies    5  08/27/13    3,732   01/15/14      483
UNP14C120   Railroads              2  09/27/12    2,570   01/03/14    9,280

Option      Hardnose Group       Qty        Start            End of Month  
----------  --------------------  --  -----------------   -----------------
ACT15C95    Drugs                  2  03/27/13    1,910   01/31/14   13,552
CAR15C35    Rental Services        7  05/24/13    3,793   01/31/14    6,020
CI15C60     Healthcare Plans       3  01/25/13    2,317   01/31/14    8,604
CMCSK15C37  Utilities, Telecom     5  12/14/12    2,047   01/31/14    2,900
FDO16C65    Retail, Variety        3  12/13/13    2,269   01/31/14    2,259
GNRC16C50   Machinery              5  11/20/13    5,107   01/31/14    5,165
HD15C77.5   Home Furnishings       3  09/27/13    2,089   01/31/14    1,605
LYB15C70    Chemicals              3  07/26/13    2,200   01/31/14    3,534
PETM15C70   Retail, Specialty      3  11/27/12    3,550   01/31/14      960
PII15C87.5  Recreation             2  02/27/13    2,750   01/31/14    3,580
ROST15C65   Apparel                3  06/27/13    2,488   01/31/14    3,384
STZ15C65    Beverages, Alcoholic   3  10/25/13    2,284   01/31/14    4,458
UNP16C175   Railroads              1  01/27/14    1,639                    

Capital gains

 Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct    Nov    Dec    Jan  Option
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
  -10      0   5320      0      0      0   2960      0   3372      0   ACTc
 1010    654    516   1340  -2314    168    872   2384   1500    -89   AZOc
                -13    -70  -1610   -420    840   2100      0   1400   CARc
  825    690     60   2067     60    504      0   -207      0   1725    CIc
  350    640   -830     90    250      0      0      0      0      0 CMCSKc
 -455   1450   -285    885  -1075   2525   -255    610     45    608   DFSc
    0    300   -510   -201   -225    -48    474     60    -45   -340   DRIc
                                                                 -10   FDOc
                                    -482   1200  -1615    -50  -2302   GMEc
                                                         1493  -1435  GNRCc
                                            101    399    171  -1155    HDc
                              320    180    570   -270    534      0   LYBc
 -180    750   -120     30   -210    810   -360    -57   -291  -1482  PETMc
         594  -1620  -1566                                             PHMc
 -180      0      0   1020      0      0      0      0      0      0   PIIc
                       215    201    537      0   1131  -1188      0  ROSTc
                                                   806     90   1278   STZc
 1430   2190    -40    264  -1302      0      0   1928     50    620   UNPc
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
 2790   7268   2478   4074  -5905   3774   6402   7269   5681  -1182  Total

Real Estate Fund Strategy

Portfolio

I sold IYR14C64 to prevent it from being exercised on January 18.

Option     Hardnose Group        Qty        Start               End        
-----   --------------------   -----  -----------------   -----------------
IYR14C64    US Real Estate ETF     3  10/26/12    1,240   01/03/14       79

Option          Description      Qty        Start            End of Month  
----------  --------------------  --  -----------------   -----------------
IYR15C64    US Real Estate ETF     3  11/27/12    1,825   01/31/14    1,155
IYR15C64    US Real Estate ETF     3  12/14/12    1,490   01/31/14    1,155
IYR15C69    US Real Estate ETF     3  01/25/13    1,225   01/31/14      387
IYR15C68    US Real Estate ETF     3  02/27/13    1,369   01/31/14      600
IYR15C70    US Real Estate ETF     3  03/27/13    1,180   01/31/14      330
IYR15C73    US Real Estate ETF     3  04/26/13    1,195   01/31/14      165
IYR15C73    US Real Estate ETF     3  05/24/13    1,264   01/31/14      165
IYR15C67    US Real Estate ETF     3  06/27/13    1,465   01/31/14      570
IYR15C68    US Real Estate ETF     3  07/26/13    1,450   01/31/14      600
IYR15C63    US Real Estate ETF     3  08/27/13    1,462   01/31/14    1,275
IYR15C65    US Real Estate ETF     3  09/27/13    1,336   01/31/14      891
IYR15C68    US Real Estate ETF     3  10/25/13    1,330   01/31/14      600
IYR16C65    US Real Estate ETF     3  11/20/13    1,495   01/31/14    1,410
IYR16C63    US Real Estate ETF     3  12/13/13    1,450   01/31/14    1,485
IYR16C65    US Real Estate ETF     3  01/27/14    1,294                    

Capital gains

 Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct    Nov    Dec    Jan  Option
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
 4259    755  -7927   2519  -6484   1316   3029  -7771  -1900    780   IYRc

Easy Strategy

Portfolio

Option          Description      Qty        Start            End of Month  
----------  --------------------  --  -----------------   -----------------
SPY15C150   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  01/25/13    1,243   01/31/14    3,120
SPY15C155   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  02/27/13    1,037   01/31/14    2,542
SPY15C160   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  03/27/13    1,020   01/31/14    2,210
SPY15C160   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  04/26/13    1,104   01/31/14    2,210
SPY15C165   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  05/24/13    1,282   01/31/14    1,895
SPY15C165   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  06/27/13    1,097   01/31/14    1,895
SPY15C170   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  07/26/13    1,079   01/31/14    1,535
SPY15C165   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  08/27/13    1,122   01/31/14    1,895
SPY15C170   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  09/27/13    1,059   01/31/14    1,535
SPY15C180   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  10/25/13      838   01/31/14      930
SPY16C180   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  11/20/13    1,577   01/31/14    1,451
SPY16C179   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  12/13/13    1,520   01/31/14    1,560
SPY16C179   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  01/27/14    1,569                    

Capital gains

 Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct    Nov    Dec    Jan  Option
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
  307   1655  -1052   2282  -2069   1677   4336   3446   2944  -5285   SPYc