Home  choices  barometer  timing  tests  signals  realty  easy  buy  sell  lists

2013 June Update


The selection lists were generated before the June 27 market opening. The portfolios and capital gains summaries are current to the end of the month.


The current trends of some stocks in the selection lists started near the bear market bottom on March 9, 2009. Some started even earlier, in October or November of 2008.

The selection lists were previously generated with four years of daily price data, but this is no longer adequate. Starting with this update, selection lists will use all available daily price data.

Comprehensive Strategy, stocks

Selection list

The Finviz screener was used to find approximately 250 stocks with Price Over $5 and the lowest PEG ratios. Price histories were downloaded from MSN and current trends were calculated:

Company                        Trend  Hardnose Group             End Market
-----------------------------  -----  --------------------  ---------------
PGTI  PGT Inc                  222    Building Materials                USA
PHM   PulteGroup Inc           192 X  Homebuilding                      USA
AFSI  AmTrust Financial        176    Insurance                    USA/intl
CAMP  CalAmp Corp              167    Electronic Equipment              USA
RYL   Ryland Group             166 X  Homebuilding                      USA
PDFS  PDF Solutions            165    Software                     USA/intl
AWH   Allied World Assurance   144    Insurance                        intl
LAD   Lithia Motors            139    Autos & Trucks                    USA
WGO   Winnebago Ind            130    Recreation                 USA/Canada
MTH   Meritage Homes           129 X  Homebuilding                      USA
DTV   DIRECTV Inc              129    Utilities, Telecom      USA/LatinAmer
NCT   Newcastle Investment     122    Real Estate                       USA
MPC   Marathon Petroleum       121 X  Oil & Gas                         USA
AFOP  Alliance Fiber Optic     120    Semiconductors                   intl
CAR   Avis Budget Group        118    Rental Services                  intl
OMX   OfficeMax Inc            115 X  Retail, Specialty          USA/Mexico
REGI  Renewable Energy         114    Oil & Gas                         USA
TA    TravelCenters of Amer_   107 X  Retail, Specialty          USA/Canada
WIBC  Wilshire Bancorp         105    Banks                             USA
ABG   Asbury Automotive        102    Auto Dealerships                  USA

Portfolio

I sold HIMX and VIPS because they developed downtrends.

I chose PGTI, the top of the list, for the periodic purchase:

Prime      Hardnose Group        Qty        Start                End       
-----   --------------------   -----  -----------------   -----------------
HIMX    Semiconductors          3000  05/24/13   20,820   06/17/13   17,097
VIPS    Internet Services        700  02/27/13   18,516   06/21/13   18,543

Prime      Hardnose Group        Qty        Start            End of Month  
-----   --------------------   -----  -----------------   -----------------
AFSI    Insurance               1100  08/26/11   22,593   06/30/13   39,270
BBSI    Business Services        350  11/27/12   11,018   06/30/13   18,274
CAMP    Electronic Equipment    3000  07/27/12   22,342   06/30/13   43,800
CHL     Utilities, Telecom       350  04/19/05    5,662   06/30/13   18,120
DXPE    Industrial Equipment     500  09/27/12   23,802   06/30/13   33,300
JAZZ    Biotechnology            500  01/27/12   24,010   06/30/13   34,365
LAD     Autos & Trucks           500  12/14/12   17,246   06/30/13   26,655
MGAM    Entertainment           1500  05/25/12   19,133   06/30/13   39,105
MWE     Oil & Gas                300  12/15/11   16,044   06/30/13   20,055
OCN     Banks                   1000  06/27/12   18,460   06/30/13   41,220
PGTI    Building Materials      2000  06/27/13   17,304                    

Capital gains

09/27  10/26  11/27  12/14  01/25   Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun   Prime
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
                             2267                                      AAMC
               -371  -2249     90                                      AAPL
 -175   -634                                                          AAPLc
 -754  -1199   3773    462   5544   -121   1540  -3289   1507   2937   AFSI
  480   8808  -3219  -2889  -1782                                      ASPS
                      3486   2751   2303   6286    196   2379          BBSI
                                                         1887  -2142   BBSI
 4080   1260    150  -1440    -60   7800     60    480   6120   4290   CAMP
 1239     84    196    500                                              CHL
                       434  -1182    346   -584    738  -1204    -10    CHL
                                    1081   3860  -2050  -4095          CRAY
         128  -1175    205   5030   3110   6250  -3910  -3905   3765   DXPE
                                                               -3723   HIMX
   55  -1425  -2940    925  -3373                                      IACI
 5415  -1210  -1410   -460   3180    415  -1135   1220   4810    380   JAZZ
                             3584   -280   3190   1020   1285    610    LAD
 -150    -45  -2265   -285    225   6870   3255   5685   1395    720   MGAM
-2013  -4142                                                           MLNX
  834    126  -1071   -588   1422   1065   1074    735    792    303    MWE
 3010  11040  -4890    590   2830   2090  -1500  -1340   6200  -1560    OCN
                                                                       PGTI
                             1527                                      RESI
                                           2743    294   -574  -2436   VIPS
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
12021  12791 -13222  -1310  22053  24679  25039   -221  16597   3134  Total

Comprehensive Strategy, call options

Selection list

The Finviz screener was used to find approximately 750 stocks with Price Over $5, the lowest PEG ratios, and LEAPs in the most distant complete series. Price histories were downloaded from MSN. Current trends, premium ratios, and merits were calculated:

Company                        Merit  Hardnose Group             End Market
-----------------------------  -----  --------------------  ---------------
PII   Polaris Ind              347    Recreation                   USA/intl
ROST  Ross Stores              280    Apparel                           USA
PETM  PetSmart Inc             274    Retail, Specialty          USA/Canada
UNP   Union Pacific            263    Railroads                         USA
AZO   AutoZone Inc             259    Auto Parts                 USA/Mexico
CMCSA Comcast Corp             225    Utilities, Telecom           USA/intl
UNH   UnitedHealth Group       216    Healthcare Plans                  USA
TSM   Taiwan Semiconductor     195    Semiconductors                   intl
DFS   Discover Financial       188    Credit Services                   USA
DTV   DIRECTV Inc              180    Utilities, Telecom      USA/LatinAmer
PHM   PulteGroup Inc           166 X  Homebuilding                      USA
OCN   Ocwen Financial          152    Banks                        USA/intl
RYL   Ryland Group             144 X  Homebuilding                      USA
GILD  Gilead Sciences          142    Biotechnology                    intl
MPC   Marathon Petroleum       136 X  Oil & Gas                         USA
REGN  Regeneron Pharma_        129 X  Biotechnology                USA/intl
TMUS  T-Mobile US              126    Utilities, Telecom                USA
NCT   Newcastle Investment     122    Real Estate                       USA
GMCR  Green Mountain Coffee    112    Packaged Goods             USA/Canada
SPF   Standard Pacific         101 X  Homebuilding                      USA

Portfolio

I chose ROST for the periodic purchase, bypassing PII because I already own it:

Prime       Hardnose Group       Qty        Start            End of Month  
----------  --------------------  --  -----------------   -----------------
ACT15C95    Drugs                  2  03/27/13    1,910   06/30/13    7,220
AZO14C380   Auto Parts             1  08/27/12    4,049   06/30/13    5,760
CAR15C35    Rental Services        7  05/24/13    3,793   06/30/13    3,780
CI15C60     Healthcare Plans       3  01/25/13    2,317   06/30/13    4,455
CMCSK15C37  Utilities, Telecom     5  12/14/12    2,047   06/30/13    2,650
DFS14C40    Credit Services        5  07/31/12    1,862   06/30/13    4,165
DRI14C52.5  Restaurants            3  10/26/12    1,585   06/30/13      570
PETM15C70   Retail, Specialty      3  11/27/12    3,550   06/30/13    2,520
PHM15C22    Homebuilding          10  04/26/13    4,206   06/30/13    3,180
PII15C87.5  Recreation             2  02/27/13    2,750   06/30/13    2,560
ROST15C65   Apparel                3  06/27/13    2,488                    
UNP14C140   Railroads              2  09/27/12    2,570   06/30/13    7,720

Capital gains

09/27  10/26  11/27  12/14  01/25   Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun   Prime
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
                                                   -10      0   5320   ACTc
 -379   -470    620  -1500   -320    850    730   1010    654    516   AZOc
                                                                 -13   CARc
                                     -10    573    825    690     60    CIc
                              -12    415    -50    350    640   -830 CMCSKc
 -520    600   -200    250   -760   -175   1840   -455   1450   -285   DFSc
                -97   -885   -303     45    435      0    300   -510   DRIc
                       -10   -750   -720      0   -180    750   -120  PETMc
                                                          594  -1620   PHMc
                                            -10   -180      0      0   PIIc
                                                                      ROSTc
          58    -90    422    816    -78    442   1430   2190    -40   UNPc
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
 -899    188    233  -1723  -1329    327   3960   2790   7268   2478  Total

Real Estate Fund Strategy

Portfolio

Prime       Description          Qty        Start            End of Month  
----------  --------------------  --  -----------------   -----------------
IYR14C64    US Real Estate ETF     3  10/26/12    1,240   06/30/13    1,446
IYR15C64    US Real Estate ETF     3  11/27/12    1,825   06/30/13    2,025
IYR15C64    US Real Estate ETF     3  12/14/12    1,490   06/30/13    2,025
IYR15C69    US Real Estate ETF     3  01/25/13    1,225   06/30/13      897
IYR15C68    US Real Estate ETF     3  02/27/13    1,369   06/30/13      885
IYR15C70    US Real Estate ETF     3  03/27/13    1,180   06/30/13    1,080
IYR15C73    US Real Estate ETF     3  04/26/13    1,195   06/30/13      516
IYR15C73    US Real Estate ETF     3  05/24/13    1,264   06/30/13      516
IYR15C67    US Real Estate ETF     3  06/27/13    1,465                    

Capital gains

09/27  10/26  11/27  12/14  01/25   Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun   Prime
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
               -220   -316   1291    170    590   4259    755  -7927   IYRc

Easy Strategy

Portfolio

Prime       Description          Qty        Start            End of Month  
----------  --------------------  --  -----------------   -----------------
SPY15C150   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  01/25/13    1,243   06/30/13    1,938
SPY15C155   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  02/27/13    1,037   06/30/13    1,490
SPY15C160   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  03/27/13    1,020   06/30/13    1,335
SPY15C160   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  04/26/13    1,104   06/30/13    1,335
SPY15C165   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  05/24/13    1,282   06/30/13    1,057
SPY15C165   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  06/27/13    1,097                    

Capital gains

09/27  10/26  11/27  12/14  01/25   Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun   Prime
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
                                      67    492    307   1655  -1052   SPYc