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2013 February Update


The selection lists were generated before the February 27 market opening. The portfolios and capital gains summaries are current to the end of the month.


I am changing the update day from the buying day to the end of the month. This will make the capital gains summaries easier to understand.

The January Barometer was positive. I will not take defensive action this year.

I have increased the number of Hardnose Groups from 50 to 75. Too many stocks were being disqualified on the basis of diversification.

Comprehensive Strategy, stocks

Selection list

The Yahoo Java screener was used to find approximately 250 stocks with Last Close >= $5 and the lowest PEG ratios. Price histories were downloaded from MSN and current trends were calculated:

Company                        Trend  Hardnose Group             End Market
-----------------------------  -----  --------------------  ---------------
JAZZ  Jazz Pharmaceuticals     201    Biotechnology                USA/intl
VIPS  Vipshop Holdings         190    Internet Services               China
BBSI  Barrett Business         173    Business Services                 USA
OCN   Ocwen Financial          159    Banks                        USA/intl
RYL   Ryland Group             146 X  Homebuilding                      USA
DK    Delek US Holdings        138    Oil & Gas                         USA
AHS   AMN Healthcare           133    Business Services                 USA
DXPE  DXP Enterprises          123    Industrial Equipment              USA
WNR   Western Refining         119    Oil & Gas                         USA
WGO   Winnebago Ind            119    Recreation                 USA/Canada
CYNO  Cynosure                 114    Medical Supplies                 intl
SEH   Spartech Corp            106    Synthetics                 NAmer/intl
DTV   DIRECTV Inc              105    Utilities, Telecom      USA/LatinAmer
ALJ   Alon USA Energy          102    Oil & Gas                         USA
GPOR  Gulfport Energy           99 X  Oil & Gas                         USA
NLS   Nautilus                  97    Recreation                 USA/Canada
HNP   Huaneng Power             95    Utilities, Energy               China
MDC   MDC Holdings              95    Homebuilding                      USA
CGI   Celadon Group             93    Trucking                        NAmer
CPA   Copa Holdings             93    Airlines                    LatinAmer

Portfolio

I chose VIPS for the periodic purchase, bypassing JAZZ because I already own it. VIPS is an online retailer, but Yahoo classified it as Technology, Internet Service Providers:

Prime     Hardnose Group         Qty        Start               Today      
--------  --------------------  ----  -----------------   -----------------
AFSI      Insurance             1100  08/26/11   22,593   02/28/13   36,575
BBSI      Business Services      700  11/27/12   22,036   02/28/13   30,576
CAMP      Electronic Equipment  3000  07/27/12   22,342   02/28/13   32,850
CHL       Utilities, Telecom     350  04/19/05    5,662   02/28/13   19,180
CRAY      Computers             1000  01/25/13   18,269   02/28/13   19,350
DXPE      Industrial Equipment   500  09/27/12   23,802   02/28/13   31,100
JAZZ      Biotechnology          500  01/27/12   24,010   02/28/13   29,090
LAD       Autos & Trucks         500  12/14/12   17,246   02/28/13   20,550
MGAM      Entertainment         1500  05/25/12   19,133   02/28/13   28,050
MWE       Oil & Gas              300  12/15/11   16,044   02/28/13   17,151
OCN       Banks                 1000   6/27/12   18,460   02/28/13   39,420
VIPS      Internet Services      700   2/27/13   18,516                    

Capital gains

05/25  06/27  07/27  08/27  09/27  10/26  11/27  12/14  01/25   Feb   Prime
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
                                                         2267          AAMC
                                           -371  -2249     90          AAPL
-3500    700   2185   6940   -175   -634                              AAPLc
 1520    260    970  -1280   -754  -1199   3773    462   5544   -121   AFSI
 -762   4314    471   3156    480   8808  -3219  -2889  -1782          ASPS
                                                  3486   2751   2303   BBSI
-3550                                                                  BRFS
                     -1282   4080   1260    150  -1440    -60   7800   CAMP
-2471   2107   2660  -2814   1239     84    196    500                  CHL
                                                   434  -1182    346    CHL
                                                                1081   CRAY
                                     128  -1175    205   5030   3110   DXPE
-3195                                                                  GTIV
-2165    445   4118   -968     55  -1425  -2940    925  -3373          IACI
-2930   -695   2015  -1090   5415  -1210  -1410   -460   3180    415   JAZZ
                                                         3584   -280    LAD
        1012   1560   1995   -150    -45  -2265   -285    225   6870   MGAM
                            -2013  -4142                               MLNX
-2475  -1209   1407   -342    834    126  -1071   -588   1422   1065    MWE
               1390   4900   3010  11040  -4890    590   2830   2090    OCN
                                                         1527          RESI
-3925                                                                   USG
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
-23453  6934  16776   9215  12021  12791 -13222  -1310  22053  24679  Total

Comprehensive Strategy, call options

Selection list

The Yahoo Java screener was used to find approximately 750 stocks with Last Close >= $5 and the lowest PEG ratios. Price histories were downloaded from MSN. Current trends, premium ratios, and merits were calculated:

Company                        Merit  Hardnose Group             End Market
-----------------------------  -----  --------------------  ---------------
PII   Polaris Ind              297    Recreation                   USA/intl
UNP   Union Pacific            248    Railroads                         USA
CMCSA Comcast Corp             223    Utilities, Telecom           USA/intl
CI    Cigna Corp               211    Healthcare Plans             USA/intl
UNH   UnitedHealth Group       205    Healthcare Plans                  USA
ACT   Actavis Inc              193    Drugs                            intl
AZO   AutoZone Inc             176    Auto Parts                 USA/Mexico
PETM  PetSmart Inc             170    Retail, Specialty          USA/Canada
NCT   Newcastle Investment     160    Real Estate                       USA
DFS   Discover Financial       151    Credit Services                   USA
ORLY  O'Reilly Automotive      150    Auto Parts                        USA
DTV   DIRECTV                  141    Utilities, Telecom      USA/LatinAmer
MPC   Marathon Petroleum       131    Oil & Gas                         USA
RYL   Ryland Group             128 X  Homebuilding                      USA
OCN   Ocwen Financial          125    Banks                        USA/intl
GILD  Gilead Sciences          116    Biotechnology                    intl
REGN  Regeneron Pharma_        104    Biotechnology                     USA
WNR   Western Refining         104    Oil & Gas                         USA
BWLD  Buffalo Wild Wings        92 X  Restaurants                       USA
SPWR  SunPower Corp             73    Semiconductors                   intl

Portfolio

I chose PII, the top of the list, for the periodic purchase. (The purchase was allowed after reclassifying PII from the Entertainment group, which conflicted with MGAM, to the newly created Recreation group):

Prime       Hardnose Group       Qty        Start               Today      
----------  --------------------  --  -----------------   -----------------
AZO14C380   Auto Parts             1  08/27/12    4,049   02/28/13    2,850
CI15C60     Healthcare Plans       3  01/25/13    2,317   02/28/13    2,307
CMCSK15C37  Utilities, Telecom     5  12/14/12    2,047   02/28/13    2,450
DFS14C40    Credit Services        5  07/31/12    1,862   02/28/13    1,615
DRI14C52.5  Restaurants            3  10/26/12    1,585   02/28/13      345
PETM15C70   Retail, Specialty      3  11/27/12    3,550   02/28/13    2,070
PII15C87.5  Recreation             2  02/27/13    2,750                    
UNP14C140   Railroads              2  09/27/12    2,570   02/28/13    3,698

Capital gains

05/25  06/27  07/27  08/27  09/27  10/26  11/27  12/14  01/25   Feb   Prime
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
                             -379   -470    620  -1500   -320    850   AZOc
                                                                 -10    CIc
                                                          -12    415 CMCSKc
                       558   -520    600   -200    250   -760   -175   DFSc
                                            -97   -885   -303     45   DRIc
                                                   -10   -750   -720  PETMc
                                      58    -90    422    816    -78   UNPc
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
    0      0      0    558   -899    188    233  -1723  -1329    327  Total

Real Estate Fund Strategy

Portfolio

Prime       Description          Qty        Start               Today      
----------  --------------------  --  -----------------   -----------------
IYR14C64    US Real Estate ETF     3  10/26/12    1,240   02/28/13    1,680
IYR15C64    US Real Estate ETF     3  11/27/12    1,825   02/28/13    1,905
IYR15C64    US Real Estate ETF     3  12/14/12    1,490   02/28/13    1,905
IYR15C69    US Real Estate ETF     3  01/25/13    1,225   02/28/13    1,215
IYR15C68    US Real Estate ETF     3  02/27/13    1,369                    

Capital gains

05/25  06/27  07/27  08/27  09/27  10/26  11/27  12/14  01/25   Feb   Prime
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
                                           -220   -316   1291    170   IYRc

Easy Strategy

Portfolio

Prime       Description          Qty        Start               Today      
----------  --------------------  --  -----------------   -----------------
SPY15C150   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  01/25/13    1,243   02/28/13    1,310
SPY15C155   S&P 500 Index ETF      1  02/27/13    1,037                    

Capital gains

05/25  06/27  07/27  08/27  09/27  10/26  11/27  12/14  01/25   Feb   Prime
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
                                                                  67   SPYc